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We provide high quality intelligence on U.S. natural gas market. Our data-driven analytics enables traders to make smart and well-informed decisions and to place trades with confidence and risk-awareness. We provide accurate natural gas storage forecast as well as an outlook for key market variables: production, consumption, imports and exports (including LNG).

Our Aim

By providing accurate, in-depth analysis of natural gas fundamentals, we aim is to help traders maximize returns and minimize the risks. 

Our Vision

Maximizing Trading Returns in Natural Gas Through Fundamental Analysis!

 

Natural Gas Market - Data and Forecast

Bluegold Research (BGR) is an independent, employee-owned, boutique research firm covering U.S. natural gas market. BGR was created as a result of a merger between two proprietary trading firms that had to separate their trading and research departments.

We specialize in fundamental analysis and provide daily update on the most critical natural gas data. Because we provide both a long-term outlook and a short-term view of the marketplace, our projections enable traders to make high-quality, well-informed and confident trading decisions.

To see our forecasting track record, please click here.

Most of our charts and tables are updated on a daily and weekly basis (click here to see the schedule). Some of them are available for free, others are open to members only. If you want to obtain full access and use more advanced data sets, such as computer models and end-of-season storage forecasts, please join our membership club.

Full Access:
$60 per month

  • 12-week storage forecast 
  • Consumption and production forecast
  • Exports and imports forecast (including LNG)
  • End-of-season storage forecast
  • Market sentiment
  • Weather outlook
  • Trading exposure and forward guidance
  • Interactive charts
  • Discounts on future services
  • No ads

Please note, that you only pay when you wish to pay. Memberships will not auto-renew. You will not be charged automatically when your membership expires. To become a member, please register and top-up your account.

Trading Commentary

June 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 495 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 88.4 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish yesterday afternoon; More bearish changes in weather are necessary to shrink storage deficit.
Detail
June 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,998 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending June 15; We anticipate to see an injection of 85 bcf, which is 22 bcf larger than a year ago and 2 bcf larger vs 5-year average; Last winter has shown that storage level can drop by more than 1.0 Tcf in just four weeks; Therefore,there is still a need to inject an adequate amount of natural gas into the undergroundstorage this summer and fall.
Detail

About Natural Gas

Natural gas is an energy commodity, a fossil fuel. Just like other forms of petroleum, natural gas is primarily used to generate power and drive things around us. It is therefore a vital commodity and has become increasingly important over the past years.

Types

Broadly speaking, natural gas can be divided into two categories: dry gas (almost pure methane) and wet gas (contains other hydrocarbon compounds, such as ethane, propane and butane). Dry natural gas is also known as consumer-grade natural gas and it is the market for this type of gas that we analyze at Bluegold Research.

Measures

Quantities of natural gas can be measured in two ways. One way is to measure the actual volume of the commodity itself. In this case, it is common to use normal cubic meters (cm) or standard cubic feet (cf). Another way is to measure the energy content of natural gas (the so-called “gross heat of combustion”) – i.e., the amount of energy released as heat when natural gas is burned. In this case, the most common measures are: joule (J), kilowatt hour (kwh) and British thermal units (Btu).

Below are approximate measurements and conversions for dry natural gas:

 Measure  Btu  kmw  Joule  Megajoule
 1 cubic foot   1,027 Btu  0.301 kwh   1,083,600 J  1.08 MJ
 1 cubic meter  36,409 Btu  10.67 kwh  38,412,000 J  38.4 MJ

To put things into perspective, one Btu is approximately equal to the energy released by burning a single wooden kitchen match. So, burning one cubic meter of gas is equivalent to burning 36,409 wooden matches.

Natural gas pricing in the United States has moved from a volume-based pricing system to a heat-content pricing system. In other words, natural gas is bought and sold based on its BTU content, not on how many cubic feet it contains. That is why it is very important to understand the measurements in this market.   

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Prices
Front month futures contract July (N)
Expiration date June 27
Henry Hub futures price, last close (USD/mmbtu) 2.945
Henry Hub spot price, last close (USD/mmbtu) 2.95

Last update: June 22, 2018.

Click here to see the forward curve and contract expiration dates.

Storage
Working gas in storage (bcf) 1,913
Surplus/deficit versus: 
a year ago -785
5-year average -507
5-year maximum -1,108
5-year minimum +274

Last update: June 14, 2018

Click here to see our long-term storage forecast. 

Infrastructure
Proved reserves (Tcf) 341.1
Total working gas capacity (bcf) 4,815
Natural gas rigs 188
Oil rigs 862
Natural gas-fired power plants (net summer capacity, GW) 450

Last update: June 21, 2018.

Market Research

June 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 495 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 88.4 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish yesterday afternoon; More bearish changes in weather are necessary to shrink storage deficit.
Detail
June 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,998 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending June 15; We anticipate to see an injection of 85 bcf, which is 22 bcf larger than a year ago and 2 bcf larger vs 5-year average; Last winter has shown that storage level can drop by more than 1.0 Tcf in just four weeks; Therefore,there is still a need to inject an adequate amount of natural gas into the undergroundstorage this summer and fall.
Detail
June 19, 2018  
Over the past five months there has not been a single strong reason to be bearish on natural gas. Dry gas production has been essentially flat for the past six months. The extended-range ECMWF model has not issued a single bearish weather forecast since April 30. In historical terms, supply and demand are more or less balanced.
Detail
June 17, 2018. Trends In The Electric Power Sector
June 17, 2018  

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