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We provide high quality intelligence on U.S. natural gas market. Our data-driven analytics enables traders to make smart and well-informed decisions and to place trades with confidence and risk-awareness. We provide accurate natural gas storage forecast as well as an outlook for key market variables: production, consumption, imports and exports (including LNG).

Our Aim

By providing accurate, in-depth analysis of natural gas fundamentals, our aim is to help traders maximize returns and minimize the risks. 

Our Vision

Maximizing Trading Returns in Natural Gas Through Fundamental Analysis!

 

Natural Gas Market - Data and Forecasts

Bluegold Research (BGR) is an independent provider of market information and trading analytics for the U.S. natural gas market. We provide extensive coverage and in-depth analysis along with the trading commentary, forward guidance and actionable weather forecasts. We help our customers make confident trading decisions.

 

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Bluegold Research makes sense of market data so you don't have to. We collect loads of information and analytics and use it to produce a clear picture on the current and future trends in the US natural gas market. Because we provide both a long-term outlook and a short-term view of the marketplace, our projections enable traders to make high-quality, well-informed and confident trading decisions.

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WEATHER FUNDAMENTAL VARIABLES STORAGE
  • Short-range forecast (GFS, ECMWF)
  • Extended-range outlook (ECMWF)
  • Long-term projections (CFSv2)
  • Dry gas production
  • National consumption
  • Exports (inc. LNG)
  • Imports
  • SD balance
  • Coal-to-gas switching
  • Market expectations
  • Short-term forecast
  • Mid-term forecast
  • End-of-season storage indices
PRICES TRADING VIEW SPECIAL REPORTS
  • U.S. spot/cash prices
  • NYMEX futures seasonality
  • Gulf Coast LNG
  • European prices (NBP, TTF)
  • Regional LNG prices
  • Trading positions
  • Levels and targets
  • Forward guidance
  • Risks and trends
  • Oil Products Inventories at Five Major Ports
  • EIA STEO (Evolution of Forecasts)
  • LNG Report (to be launched soon)
MARKET SENTIMENT AUXILIARY INDICATORS FREQUENT UPDATES
  • CFTC COT reports (oil and natural gas)
  • Retail sentiment
  • Evolution of forecasts
  • Expectations gap
  • Days of supply
  • Weather-neutral SD balance
  • TS / TD curves
  • 04:00 AM EDT
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  • + live chat (Enelyst)
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Natgas Futures, LNG And International Prices

22-May-20 United States United Kingdom Netherlands OIL**
NYMEX HH NYMEX HH STRIP Gulf Coast LNG NBP* TTF* WTI BRENT
Daily close (USD per MMBtu) $1.731 $2.66 $1.13 $1.19 $1.29 $33.25 $35.13
% change
daily 1.2% 0.6% -12.3% 0.6% 1.6% -2.0% -2.6%
weekly 5.2% -0.5% -26.2% -24.0% -21.5% 13.0% 8.1%
monthly -10.7% -3.1% -15.7% -31.8% -33.7% 141.3% 72.5%
annual -31.9% -1.2% -66.4% -69.3% -69.0% -45.9% -50.5%
Last update: May 24, 2020, 16:20 EDT

Natural Gas Inventories (Regions)

15-May-20 Natural Gas Inventories (Regions)
East Midwest Mountain Pacific S. Central Salt
BCF 469 576 124 253 1081 345
% change
weekly 17 22 7 13 22 5
monthly* 69 83 28 43 140 44
annual 123 220 37 70 328 99
vs 5-Y av. 93 144 -5 7 168 59
vs 5-Y min. 180 297 37 70 371 123
vs 5-Y max. -27 -37 -43 -45 -123 -26
Last update: May 21, 2020, 10:35 EDT


Market Research

February 12, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,492 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 7. We anticipate to see a draw of 117 bcf, which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago but 14 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a minor bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). ECMWF 00z model was very bullish vs. yesterday's results. From February 17, total degree days are projected to trend mostly sideways. Nuclear outages are rising and should continue to rise rise until mid-April (at least).
Detail
February 11, 2020  
Total consumption of dry natural gas in November 2019 decreased in three of the four consuming sectors, but overall edged down by only 0.40% y-o-y (despite substantially weaker TDDs). Total natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that U.S. natural gas consumption will rise by 2.64% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (February to April). Over the next three months, total supply will be growing slower (on an annualized basis) than total demand, ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be tighter (relative to 2019). Our end-of-season storage index currently stands at 1,731 bcf, which is below market expectations of 1,895 bcf.
Detail
February 5, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,615 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 31. We anticipate to see a draw of 131 bcf, which is 97 bcf larger than a year ago and 12 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a minor bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). ECMWF 00z model was very bearish vs. yesterday's results, but total degree days are still projected to rise above the norm on Feb. 14. Combined LNG stocks (at six major facilities) currently stand at just 54% of total observed capacity.
Detail
January 31, 2020  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is down 12.3% y-o-y to 119.5 bcf/d, but is projected to rise next week. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 5.4% y-o-y to 103.5 bcf/d, but the growth rate should continue to slow. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 131 bcf next week, 97 bcf smaller than a year ago and 12 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. TDDs are generally projected to trend higher, but remain below the norm (until at least Feb. 10 - Feb. 11). Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the five-year average is currently projected to shrink by -44 bcf over the next three weeks.
Detail
January 30, 2020  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has totally plunged - natural gas has never been so competitive for electricity generation (vs. coal) as it is today. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 7.6 bcf/d, some 1.8 bcf/d above the five-year average, and 1.3 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 5.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in February. Total natural gas balance in February is currently projected to be tighter than last year, but only by around -0.9 bcf/d, which is still a minor bullish signal.
Detail
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