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May 17, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 1.4% w-o-w to 79.70 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up just 0.05% w-o-w to 97.20 bcf per day. Nuclear outages remain below the norm. LNG exports are near all-time highs. We currently expect EIA to report a build of 104 bcf next week.
Detail
May 15, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,653 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 10. We anticipate to see a build of 106 bcf, which is 17 bcf larger than 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 47 consecutive days now and has been weakening lately. EOS storage index is now mostly within market expectations.
Detail
May 9, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for February reached the highest level for the month since 2001, when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. LNG exports were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking them in 1997. Next year, the share of exports (in the overall demand mix) will overtake residential consumption (on a 12-month average basis).
Detail
May 8, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,547 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 3. We anticipate to see a build of 85 bcf, which is 13 bcf larger than 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 40 consecutive days now and has been weakening lately. EOS storage index is now below market expectations, which is a bullish signal (with all other things being equal).
Detail
May 5, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 10.2% w-o-w to 85.10 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is down 0.3% w-o-w to 97.4 bcf per day. Nuclear outages remain below the norm. LNG exports are near all-time highs. We currently expect EIA to report a build of 85 bcf next week.
Detail
April 25, 2019  
Electric Power sector is the primary consumer of natural gas. NG/Coal Spread is currently as much as 68% below 5-year average and 37% below last year's level. Coal-to-gas switching could potentially rise to 8-9 bcf/day this summer. The total stock of natural gas-fired power plants continues to increase. Below normal nuclear outages do not provide any additional boost to consumption.
Detail
April 23, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,336 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending April 19. We anticipate to see an injection of 89 bcf, which is 109 bcf larger than a year ago and 42 bcf larger than 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 25 consecutive days now, but near-term storage level outlook remains bearish. Despite bearish fundamentals, we think it is going to be a sideways market, so we will be buying the dips and selling the rallies.
Detail
April 17, 2019  
We are no longer bearish on natural gas. We are now starting to buy summer contracts. One technical and three fundamental reasons to buy the dips.
Detail
April 12, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for January was the highest level for any month since 2001. The average daily rate of dry natural gas production for January was the second highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly dry natural gas production in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that natural gas consumption will decline in annual terms by around 1.70% (on average) over the next three months. We have been bearish on natural gas and have been selling the rallies for the past month or so. However, we are not adding to our short exposure anymore. We believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be looser relative to 2018.
Detail
February 28, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is down 4.0% w-o-w to 118 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is down 0.6% w-o-w to 96.2 bcf per day. LNG exports reach a new all-time high. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 137bcf next week. Total demand should reach a near-term peak on March 7, but is still projected to grow (in annual terms) for another five weeks.
Detail
February 26, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,537 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 22. We anticipate to see a draw of 168 bcf, which is 83 bcf larger than a year ago and 64 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 88 consecutive days now. Nuclear outages have risen above 5-year average. Total natural gas balance is currently projected to be 6.7 bcf/d tighter in March, but 8.0 bcf/d looser in April (vs. 2018).
Detail
February 21, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% w-o-w to 125.8 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 0.9% w-o-w to 96.8 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 165 bcf next week. Aggregate demand is projected to grow (in annual terms) for another six weeks. Natural gas stocks will be 30% below 5-year average by mid-March (in case weather models do not change materially).
Detail
February 19, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,712 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 15. We anticipate to see a draw of 170 bcf, which is 36 bcf larger than a year ago and 22 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 81 consecutive days now. Total monthly natural gas balance is currently projected to be 4.3 bcf/d tighter in February (vs. 2018) and 1.8 bcf/d tighter in March.
Detail
February 15, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% w-o-w to 123.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 1.0% w-o-w to 96.0 bcf per day.We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 173 bcf next week. Export terminals served nine LNG vessels with a total natural gas capacity of 32 bcf, just 2 bcf short of an all-time high. Aggregate demand is currently projected to rise by 4.0% w-o-w in the week ending February 22.
Detail
February 13, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for November was the highest level for the month since 2001 when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. November was the 19th consecutive month that industrial deliveries set a new monthly high. Natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. In February and in March, total supply will be growing slower (on an annualized basis) than total demand ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be tighter relative to 2018.
Detail
February 12, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,875 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 8. We anticipate to see a draw of 85 bcf, which is 98 bcf smaller than a year ago and 75 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 74 consecutive days now. Thanks to lower natural gas prices, coal-to-gas switching is back above the norm.
Detail
February 10, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is down 20.0% w-o-w to 110.0 bcf per day, but is projected to rebound next week. Total natural gas supply is down 2.0% w-o-w to 95.1 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 85 bcf next week. Projected total degree-days remain above the norm. Aggregate demand is currently projected to rise by 10% w-o-w in the week ending February 15.
Detail
February 5, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,956 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 1. We anticipate to see a draw of 241 bcf, which is 125 bcf larger than a year ago and 91 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Market's EOS storage expectations are inconsistent with the latest weather outlook. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 67 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 31, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% w-o-w to 135.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is down 0.5% w-o-w at 96.8 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 243 bcf next week. Projected total degree days remain above the norm.
Detail
January 29, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,186 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 25. We anticipate to see a draw of 184 bcf, which is 58 bcf larger than a year ago and 34 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The weather models remain extremely volatile, but mostly support above normal consumption levels. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 60 consecutive days now.
Detail
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