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December 4, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,594 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 29. We anticipate to see a draw of 16 bcf, which is 46 bcf smaller than a year ago and 25 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are projecting just about normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (on average), but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending December 6, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 1.5 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
Detail
December 3, 2019  
Total consumption of dry natural gas in September 2019 decreased in three of the four consuming sectors, but total demand still grew by 6.40% thanks to strong exports and powerburn. Total natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase by +5.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (December to February). U.S. dry gas production has probably reached a major long-term peak. We estimate that annual supply-demand "deficit" will amount to -6.86 bcf/d in December and -6.04 bcf/d in January.
Detail
November 29, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has declined, meaning that natural gas became more competitive (vs. coal) as a "feedstock" for electricity generation. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 5.9 bcf/d, some 0.7 bcf/d above five-year average and as much as 2.7 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 5.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in December. Total natural gas balance in December should be substantially tighter than last year by around -6.7 bcf/day.
Detail
November 22, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 1.1% y-o-y to 104.7 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.6% y-o-y to 104.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 32 bcf next week, which is 38 bcf smaller than a year ago and 28 bcf smaller vs. the five-year norm. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020. Non-degree-day factor adds as much as 2 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year).
Detail
November 20, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,642 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 15. We anticipate to see a draw of 90 bcf, which is 19 bcf smaller than a year ago but 58 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are projecting just about normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days, but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending November 22, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 6.2 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
Detail
November 19, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 7.53% y-o-y in August 2019 to 90.80 bcf/d. Electric power deliveries were the highest for any month since EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001. LNG exports were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking them in 1997. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that national natural gas consumption will increase by +6.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (November to January). In December and January, we currently expect annual supply-demand balance to be in "deficit" relative to 2018-2019: -7.72 bcf/d in December and -4.15 bcf/d in January.
Detail
November 15, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 2.8% y-o-y to 114.5 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 8.7% y-o-y to 103.9 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 95 bcf next week, which is 14 bcf smaller than a year ago, but 63 bcf larger vs. the five-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020.
Detail
November 13, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,722 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 8. We anticipate to see a draw of 7 bcf, which is 49 bcf larger than a year ago and 37 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are showing above-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (November 13-November 28), but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending November 15, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 3.4 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
Detail
November 8, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 10.8% y-o-y to 101 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.8% y-o-y to 103.2 bcf/d. LNG exports almost reached a new all-time high. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 1 bcf next week, which is 43 bcf larger than a year ago and 31 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020.
Detail
November 6, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,735 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 1. We anticipate to see a build of 40 bcf, which is 23 bcf smaller than a year ago and 17 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (November 6-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 4.5 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by 19 bcf this November.
Detail
November 5, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. The share of natural gas-fired generation has reached an all-time high. Average NG/Coal spread has skyrocketed, as natural gas price surged by more than 20%, while coal prices remained essentially unchanged. Coal-to-gas switching is around 5.4 bcf/d, some 0.1 bcf/d below last year's level and 0.4 bcf/d below 5-year average. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 4.5 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in November. Total natural gas balance in November should be looser than last year, but only by around +0.6 bcf/day.
Detail
November 1, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.9 bcf/d. Total supply is up 7.2% y-o-y to 102.4 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 38 bcf next week, which is 25 bcf smaller than a year ago and 19 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020. Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the 5-year average will briefly turn into "deficit".
Detail
October 30, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,696 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 25. We anticipate to see a build of 90 bcf, which is 41 bcf larger than a year ago and 25 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 30-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 2.2 bcf/d tighter (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by around 100 bcf this November.
Detail
October 25, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 1.2% y-o-y to 84.8 bcf/d. Total supply is up 7.9% y-o-y to 102.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 94 bcf next week, which is 45 bcf larger than a year ago and 29 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Total supply-demand balance will tighten sharply next week to -1.60 bcf/d year-over-year. Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the 5-year average is currently projected to expand from +28 bcf today to +36 bcf for the week ending November 8.
Detail
October 23, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,613 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 18. We anticipate to see a build of 94 bcf, which is 32 bcf larger than a year ago and 21 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 23-November 7). In the week ending November 1, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 1.7 bcf/d tighter (vs. 2018).
Detail
October 18, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 0.2% y-o-y to 83.8 bcf/d. Total supply is up 8.2% y-o-y to 101.2 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 94 bcf next week, which is 32 bcf larger than a year ago and 21 bcf larger vs. the 5 year. LNG feed gas flows set a new all-time high and we estimate that by December, total natural gas exports from the U.S. will reach 13.35 bcf/d. Actual supply-demand balance is still relatively bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
October 16, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,523 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 11. We anticipate to see a build of 108 bcf, which is 26 bcf larger than a year ago and 27 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus," which has built up over the past months. Any new bullish changes in the weather/consumption forecasts are likely to result in a disproportionately stronger impact on prices compared to any additional bearish changes (because non-commercial traders are heavily net-short). Overall, classical technicals look bullish, but fundamentals are not particularly supportive given that annual storage surplus continues to expand.
Detail
October 11, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 0.3% y-o-y to 80.60 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 39 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.2% y-o-y to 100.4 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 110 bcf next week, which is 28 bcf larger than a year ago and 29 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
October 9, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,417 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 4. We anticipate to see a build of 100 bcf, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing roughly normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 9-October 24). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus," which has built up over the past months. On a 4-hour chart, we see two bearish patterns: head and shoulders and inverse cup and handle, which call for a re-test of 2.250 and 2.200.
Detail
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): Evolution Of Forecasts - October 8, 2019
October 8, 2019  

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