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February 13, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for November was the highest level for the month since 2001 when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. November was the 19th consecutive month that industrial deliveries set a new monthly high. Natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. In February and in March, total supply will be growing slower (on an annualized basis) than total demand ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be tighter relative to 2018.
Detail
February 12, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,875 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 8. We anticipate to see a draw of 85 bcf, which is 98 bcf smaller than a year ago and 75 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 74 consecutive days now. Thanks to lower natural gas prices, coal-to-gas switching is back above the norm.
Detail
February 10, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is down 20.0% w-o-w to 110.0 bcf per day, but is projected to rebound next week. Total natural gas supply is down 2.0% w-o-w to 95.1 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 85 bcf next week. Projected total degree-days remain above the norm. Aggregate demand is currently projected to rise by 10% w-o-w in the week ending February 15.
Detail
February 5, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,956 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 1. We anticipate to see a draw of 241 bcf, which is 125 bcf larger than a year ago and 91 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Market's EOS storage expectations are inconsistent with the latest weather outlook. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 67 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 31, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% w-o-w to 135.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is down 0.5% w-o-w at 96.8 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 243 bcf next week. Projected total degree days remain above the norm.
Detail
January 29, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,186 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 25. We anticipate to see a draw of 184 bcf, which is 58 bcf larger than a year ago and 34 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The weather models remain extremely volatile, but mostly support above normal consumption levels. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 60 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 24, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% w-o-w to 123.0 bcf per day (up more than 20% y-o-y). Total natural gas supply is down 0.9% w-o-w at 97.1 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 180 bcf next week. Weather models have stayed bullish for the past two weeks now. Aggregate demand is currently projected to jump by another 12% w-o-w in the week ending February 1.
Detail
January 22, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,380 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 18. We anticipate to see a draw of 153 bcf, which is 120 bcf smaller than a year ago and 32 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. The weather outlooks is bullish – large storage draws are coming. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 53 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 18, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% w-o-w to 108.2 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is flat at 96.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 152 bcf next week. Weather models are very bullish (so far). Aggregate demand is currently projected to jump by 20% in the week ending January 25.
Detail
January 16, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,528 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 11. We anticipate to see a draw of 86 bcf, which is 122 bcf smaller than a year ago and 132 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Weather is helping the bulls – annual storage surplus will only hold for a few days. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 47 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 15, 2019  
Low natural gas inventories (relative to historical norms) make price extremely susceptible to changes in the short-term weather models. If we trust GFS model entirely and completely ignore ECMWF, then we should expect a 300 bcf draw for the week ending February 1. Prompt-month contract is very risky to trade. Summer contracts are still undervalued.
Detail
January 11, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is down 5.0% y-o-y to 98 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 96.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 77 bcf next week. Weather models are getting bullish - projected energy demand is now above the norm. In February, annual storage deficit could start expanding again.
Detail
January 9, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,627 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 4. We anticipate to see a draw of 78 bcf, which is 310 bcf smaller than a year ago and 125 bcf smaller vs 5-year average. Total demand has set a near-term low on January 7 and is projected to increase from now – but will it go high enough? Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 40 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 8, 2019  
Natural gas deliveries to commercial sector were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking commercial deliveries in 1973. October was the 18th consecutive month that industrial deliveries set a new monthly high. We do not expect dry gas production to grow significantly in 2019. We expect total demand/supply balance in January and March to be looser relative to 2018. We expect total demand/supply balance in February to be tighter relative to 2018.
Detail
January 2, 2019  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,700 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 28. We anticipate to see a draw of 25 bcf, which is 193 bcf smaller than a year ago and 107 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Total demand curve is expected to start trending up from January 7. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 33 consecutive days now.
Detail
December 30, 2018. Trends In The Electric Power Sector
December 30, 2018  

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December 14, 2018  
Two factors are pulling the overall demand lower: weather forecast and the economics of fuel switching. Weather models have been getting progressively bearish since December 5. Projected number of total degree-days peaked on December 3. Coal-to-gas switching has dropped sharply over the past weeks. Seasonality and time will be on the bear's side starting roughly from Dec. 28./Jan. 1. Annual storage deficit is still projected to narrow significantly over the next four weeks (as expected).
Detail
December 5, 2018  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,990 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 30. We anticipate to see a draw of 64 bcf, which is 61 bcf larger than a year ago and 6 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Total demand is trending down, and annual storage deficit is projected to start shrinking next week. Should production and weather forecasts remain largely unchanged, we expect annual storage deficit to narrow to just -65 bcf by mid-February, 2019 (scroll down to see a detailed chart).
Detail
November 30, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 17% y-o-y to 96.5 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 65 bcf next week. In December, total supply is currently projected to grow faster than total demand.
Detail
November 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 14% y-o-y to 96.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 67 bcf this week. The latest weather models turned bearish. EOS storage index is still above 1,200bcf.
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