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November 21, 2018. Global LNG Trends
November 21, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

November 20, 2018  
Tomorrow, we expect EIA to report 3,138 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 16. We anticipate to see a draw of 109 bcf, which is 67 bcf larger than a year ago and 84 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market is fixated on the changes in short-term weather models. We have improved our coverage of numerical weather prediction systems – providing more frequent updates and more information.
Detail
November 16, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 20% y-o-y to 102 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 115 bcf next week. On Thursday, the weather models removed 30+bcf of consumption over the next 15 days (2 bcf per day). Thank you, weather! Sorry, Poland!
Detail
November 13, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,238 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 9. We anticipate to see an injection of 30 bcf, which is 43 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market has priced in a lot more than just bullish weather. The price of $4.000 per MMBtu also has lots of fear in it. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
Detail
November 12, 2018  
What has happened in the natural gas market over the past six months? What should have happened (if the market was efficient)? The trap we are in and how to get out.
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November 11, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is flat y-o-y at 83.1 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 30 bcf next week. Natural gas price is up 32% since mid-September despite the fact than annual storage deficit has narrowed by 64bcf over the same period. It is all about the weather! Consumption is expected to peak on November 14 and then decline towards the norm in the 2nd half of November.
Detail
November 5, 2018  
Natural gas deliveries to residential sector in August were the lowest for any month since 1973; Electric power deliveries were the highest for the month since 2001; Exports have already surpassed the “Other” category in the overall demand mix and are now more significant in weight than U.S. commercial users; Storage draw for the week ending November 16 could be as high as -100 bcf and as small as -60 bcf (depending on the confidence intervals applied in weather models); One of the key reasons why exports are growing so rapidly is because dry gas production is doing exactly the same; Make no mistake: exports cannot (and will not) increase independent of production; S/D balance outlook is 90% weather forecast and 10% everything else.
Detail
November 2, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 76.2 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 56 bcf next week. Annual storage deficit is expected to shrink by more than 100 bcf over the next three calendar weeks (four EIA reports). The bulls keep producing the rallies; the bears keep attacking them.
Detail
October 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 77.6 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.0 bcf per day. Dry gas production has reached a new all-time high and so do the exports into Mexico. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 53 bcf next week.
Detail
October 24, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,093 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 19. We anticipate to see an injection of 56 bcf, which is 7 bcf smaller than a year ago and 21 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production hit a new all-time high, so did the exports (into Mexico). Our EOS indices remain below market expectations, but the difference is very small. In case technical patterns perform according to the textbook, then December contract price is heading towards 3.150 and possibly towards 3.080.
Detail
October 20, 2018  
United States has produced some 7,872 bcf of natural gas in Q3 2018 (+13.95 y-o-y) and imported a total of 718 bcf (-1.40% y-o-y). Drilling activity is at three-year high and the inventory of DUCs continues to decline, meaning that production is likely to grow further. According to our calculations, total supply in Q4 will amount to 8,749 bcf or 95.1 bcf/d (+9.6% y-o-y). Natural gas producers love current prices. Thank you, weather! Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down).
Detail
October 18, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 15.0% y-o-y to 76.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 93.0 bcf per day. The number of nation-wide heating-degree days has more than doubled in the week ending October 19. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 55 bcf next week. Our official EOS storage projection (for the week ending Nov. 2) is 3,158 bcf, but we also currently expect a minor injection for the week ending Nov. 9.
Detail
October 15, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 73.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 16.0% y-o-y to 93.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 83 bcf this week. Flows to liquefaction at Cove Point have resumed after a three-week maintenance. Dry gas production remains strong, but has been unable to set a new all-time high for three weeks now.
Detail
October 10, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,956 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 5. We anticipate to see an injection of 90 bcf, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago, but exactly in line with 5-year average. The key now is to figure out what exactly the market hasn't priced in already. We see very strong bearish deviations between y-o-y price difference and y-o-y supply/demand balance.
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Objective Market Analytics Vs Subjective Trading Decisions
October 9, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

October 9, 2018  
Consumption jumped by 9.5% yoy in July and will probably rise by no less than 10% yoy in October. The volume of total exports is now equivalent to 13.0% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. A lot of "structural consumption" took place in August and September. Price action in August and September created a false image that the market is not concerned about the possibility of low level of storage at the end of the season. Over the next three months, total supply is currently expected to grow faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
Detail
October 4, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 10.0% y-o-y to 70.8 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 14.0% y-o-y to 93.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 91 bcf next week. Our end-of-season storage index for theend of March 2019 currently stands at 1,494 bcf.
Detail
October 3, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,863 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 28. We anticipate to see an injection of 95 bcf, which is 51 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs 5-year average. The fear has gripped the market – expect higher price volatility. Want to know where the price is heading now? Consult a psychologist. We are no longer cautiously bearish on natural gas – latest trading view is in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 28, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 2.0% y-o-y to 69.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 92.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 97 bcf next week. Large storage injections are coming, but our EOS storage index is below market expectations. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 24, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 76.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 92.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 58 bcf this week. Making projections for this week's report is harder than usual due to the effects of hurricane Florence. We believe that forward curve is starting to look seriously overvalued.
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