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January 9, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,627 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 4. We anticipate to see a draw of 78 bcf, which is 310 bcf smaller than a year ago and 125 bcf smaller vs 5-year average. Total demand has set a near-term low on January 7 and is projected to increase from now – but will it go high enough? Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 40 consecutive days now.
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January 8, 2019  
Natural gas deliveries to commercial sector were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking commercial deliveries in 1973. October was the 18th consecutive month that industrial deliveries set a new monthly high. We do not expect dry gas production to grow significantly in 2019. We expect total demand/supply balance in January and March to be looser relative to 2018. We expect total demand/supply balance in February to be tighter relative to 2018.
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January 2, 2019  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,700 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 28. We anticipate to see a draw of 25 bcf, which is 193 bcf smaller than a year ago and 107 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Total demand curve is expected to start trending up from January 7. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 33 consecutive days now.
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December 30, 2018. Trends In The Electric Power Sector
December 30, 2018  

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December 14, 2018  
Two factors are pulling the overall demand lower: weather forecast and the economics of fuel switching. Weather models have been getting progressively bearish since December 5. Projected number of total degree-days peaked on December 3. Coal-to-gas switching has dropped sharply over the past weeks. Seasonality and time will be on the bear's side starting roughly from Dec. 28./Jan. 1. Annual storage deficit is still projected to narrow significantly over the next four weeks (as expected).
Detail
December 5, 2018  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,990 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 30. We anticipate to see a draw of 64 bcf, which is 61 bcf larger than a year ago and 6 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Total demand is trending down, and annual storage deficit is projected to start shrinking next week. Should production and weather forecasts remain largely unchanged, we expect annual storage deficit to narrow to just -65 bcf by mid-February, 2019 (scroll down to see a detailed chart).
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November 30, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 17% y-o-y to 96.5 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 65 bcf next week. In December, total supply is currently projected to grow faster than total demand.
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November 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 14% y-o-y to 96.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 67 bcf this week. The latest weather models turned bearish. EOS storage index is still above 1,200bcf.
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November 21, 2018. Global LNG Trends
November 21, 2018  

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November 20, 2018  
Tomorrow, we expect EIA to report 3,138 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 16. We anticipate to see a draw of 109 bcf, which is 67 bcf larger than a year ago and 84 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market is fixated on the changes in short-term weather models. We have improved our coverage of numerical weather prediction systems – providing more frequent updates and more information.
Detail
November 16, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 20% y-o-y to 102 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 115 bcf next week. On Thursday, the weather models removed 30+bcf of consumption over the next 15 days (2 bcf per day). Thank you, weather! Sorry, Poland!
Detail
November 13, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,238 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 9. We anticipate to see an injection of 30 bcf, which is 43 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market has priced in a lot more than just bullish weather. The price of $4.000 per MMBtu also has lots of fear in it. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
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November 12, 2018  
What has happened in the natural gas market over the past six months? What should have happened (if the market was efficient)? The trap we are in and how to get out.
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November 11, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is flat y-o-y at 83.1 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 30 bcf next week. Natural gas price is up 32% since mid-September despite the fact than annual storage deficit has narrowed by 64bcf over the same period. It is all about the weather! Consumption is expected to peak on November 14 and then decline towards the norm in the 2nd half of November.
Detail
November 5, 2018  
Natural gas deliveries to residential sector in August were the lowest for any month since 1973; Electric power deliveries were the highest for the month since 2001; Exports have already surpassed the “Other” category in the overall demand mix and are now more significant in weight than U.S. commercial users; Storage draw for the week ending November 16 could be as high as -100 bcf and as small as -60 bcf (depending on the confidence intervals applied in weather models); One of the key reasons why exports are growing so rapidly is because dry gas production is doing exactly the same; Make no mistake: exports cannot (and will not) increase independent of production; S/D balance outlook is 90% weather forecast and 10% everything else.
Detail
November 2, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 76.2 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 56 bcf next week. Annual storage deficit is expected to shrink by more than 100 bcf over the next three calendar weeks (four EIA reports). The bulls keep producing the rallies; the bears keep attacking them.
Detail
October 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 77.6 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.0 bcf per day. Dry gas production has reached a new all-time high and so do the exports into Mexico. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 53 bcf next week.
Detail
October 24, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,093 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 19. We anticipate to see an injection of 56 bcf, which is 7 bcf smaller than a year ago and 21 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production hit a new all-time high, so did the exports (into Mexico). Our EOS indices remain below market expectations, but the difference is very small. In case technical patterns perform according to the textbook, then December contract price is heading towards 3.150 and possibly towards 3.080.
Detail
October 20, 2018  
United States has produced some 7,872 bcf of natural gas in Q3 2018 (+13.95 y-o-y) and imported a total of 718 bcf (-1.40% y-o-y). Drilling activity is at three-year high and the inventory of DUCs continues to decline, meaning that production is likely to grow further. According to our calculations, total supply in Q4 will amount to 8,749 bcf or 95.1 bcf/d (+9.6% y-o-y). Natural gas producers love current prices. Thank you, weather! Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down).
Detail
October 18, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 15.0% y-o-y to 76.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 93.0 bcf per day. The number of nation-wide heating-degree days has more than doubled in the week ending October 19. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 55 bcf next week. Our official EOS storage projection (for the week ending Nov. 2) is 3,158 bcf, but we also currently expect a minor injection for the week ending Nov. 9.
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