Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions

TRADING
VIEW
LATEST
FORECASTS
DAYS OF
SUPPLY
Home Membership Market Research Trading Guide Track Record Free Content Update Schedule Contacts
Log In

Market Research

September 19, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,722 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 14. We anticipate to see an injection of 86 bcf, which is 10 bcf smaller than a year ago, but also 10 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Nuclear outages are some 56% above 5-year average for this time of the year. The market has adjusted its EOS expectations to the downside.
Detail
September 18, 2018  
Higher nuclear outages and warmer weather drive consumption outlook higher. Our End-of-Injection Season storage index dropped below market expectations on Sunday afternoon. We went long November contract on Monday morning. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 15, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 10.0% y-o-y to 70.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 91.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 88 bcf next week. Our latest EOS storage projection is in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 12, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,639 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 7. We anticipate to see an injection of 71 bcf, which is 16 bcf smaller than a year ago and 3 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. There is currently a “bearish gap” between our storage projections and market’s expectations.
Detail
September 10, 2018  
Total natural gas demand continues to grow faster than consumption, a trend which has been in place since May 2015. After rising by 7.6% y-o-y in June, natural gas consumption then continued to increase, but at a more measured pace. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to remain strong, but annual growth rate will slow significantly. We expect exports to total 10.1 bcf per day in September, 10.4 bcf per day in October and 10.6 bcf per day in November. Over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster than total demand, ensuring that total supply/demand balance will be looser relative to 2017.
Detail
September 10, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 73.2 bcf per day; Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 92.0 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 73 bcf next week; We have closed all our short positions on Thursday; Latest trading results and trading view are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 5, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,573 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 31. We anticipate to see an injection of 68 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 3 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Weather forecast turned bearish over the weekend, but there were also other reasons to short natural gas. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
August 30, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 75.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 15.0% y-o-y to 92.0 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 66 bcf next week. EOS storage projection for the end of March 2019 is currently above market expectations as well as above the historical norm. Scroll down to see our latest trading results and trading view.
Detail
August 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 71.7 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 91.4 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week;
Detail
August 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,440 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 17. We anticipate to see an injection of 53 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 1 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Weather forecast first turned bullish in the afternoon on August 16, but more recent changes have been relatively neutral. Above-normal CDDs/TDDs and the economics of coal-to-gas switching continue to support natural gas prices, but seasonal trends are bearish, while dry gas production recently hit a new all time-high. We have executed 40 trades over the past two months (a detailed list is included in the report - published for the first time).
Detail
August 18, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 76.0 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 91.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 52 bcf next week. The latest results from numerical weather prediction models have invigorated the bulls - but for how long?
Detail
August 15, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,390 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 10; We anticipate to see an injection of 36 bcf, which is 13 bcf smaller than a year ago and 20 bcf smaller vs 5-year average; There is currently no mispricing to take advantage of in terms of EOS expectations; Bearish risks are plenty: record high production, falling CDD/TDDs, mild winter outlook, etc. Rising nuclear outages and global LNG fundamentals are the only two bullish factors that we currently observe.
Detail
August 13, 2018  
After rising by 7.9% y-o-y in May, natural gas consumption then continued to increase, but at a more measured pace. Weather-induced cooling demand grew by 9.0% and 6.5% y-o-y in June and July, respectively. Currently, we expect exports to total 10.2 bcf per day in June, 10.1 bcf per day in July and 10.4 bcf per day in August. Overall, we believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
Detail
August 10, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% y-o-y to 76.3 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 37 bcf next week. Projected number of total degree days is still above the norm but is declining fast. November and December contracts look overvalued.
Detail
August 8, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,355 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 3. We anticipate to see an injection of 47 bcf, which is 18 bcf larger than a year ago, but 6 smaller vs. 5-year average. For the past three weeks, the market has been adjusting is EOS storage expectations to the downside. Finally, the gap between market’s expectations and our own forecast has narrowed to a record low. A few words on the mystery of natural gas.
Detail
August 6, 2018  
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore, the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. August has historically been the 3rd "weakest" month for renewable power. Total natural gas balance in August should be looser relative to last year by around 2.7 bcf/day.
Detail
August 3, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 74.2 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 49 bcf next week. Our EOS storage index has dropped to 3,273 bcf on Friday morning. Our bullish bias has paid off.
Detail
August 1, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,316 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 27. We anticipate to see an injection of 43 bcf, which is 25 bcf larger than a year ago, but exactly in line with 5-year average. Storage level will drop below 5-year minimum for the first time since January. Storage level is not expected to rise above 5-year minimum in the foreseeable future.
Detail
July 28, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 7.0% y-o-y to 76.2 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.0 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 43 bcf next week; As expected, storage level has declinedbelow 5-year minimum by the end of July. We have significantly reduced our long exposure today.
Detail
July 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 540 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 34 bcf this week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish over the weekend, but total demand is still above 5-year average. End-of-season storage index is still abnormally low, and we expect inventories to drop below 5-year minimum either this week or next.
Detail
Pages:   First   Prev   2   3   4   5   6  7   8   9   10   11   Next   Last 
Copyright 2015 - 2019 © Bluegold Research     [ Terms of Use ]   [ Contacts ]
Site by Smartum IT