Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions

TRADING
VIEW
LATEST
FORECASTS
DAYS OF
SUPPLY
Home Membership Market Research Trading Guide Track Record Free Content Update Schedule Contacts
Log In

Market Research

October 15, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 73.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 16.0% y-o-y to 93.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 83 bcf this week. Flows to liquefaction at Cove Point have resumed after a three-week maintenance. Dry gas production remains strong, but has been unable to set a new all-time high for three weeks now.
Detail
October 10, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,956 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 5. We anticipate to see an injection of 90 bcf, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago, but exactly in line with 5-year average. The key now is to figure out what exactly the market hasn't priced in already. We see very strong bearish deviations between y-o-y price difference and y-o-y supply/demand balance.
Detail
Objective Market Analytics Vs Subjective Trading Decisions
October 9, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

October 9, 2018  
Consumption jumped by 9.5% yoy in July and will probably rise by no less than 10% yoy in October. The volume of total exports is now equivalent to 13.0% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. A lot of "structural consumption" took place in August and September. Price action in August and September created a false image that the market is not concerned about the possibility of low level of storage at the end of the season. Over the next three months, total supply is currently expected to grow faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
Detail
October 4, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 10.0% y-o-y to 70.8 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 14.0% y-o-y to 93.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 91 bcf next week. Our end-of-season storage index for theend of March 2019 currently stands at 1,494 bcf.
Detail
October 3, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,863 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 28. We anticipate to see an injection of 95 bcf, which is 51 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs 5-year average. The fear has gripped the market – expect higher price volatility. Want to know where the price is heading now? Consult a psychologist. We are no longer cautiously bearish on natural gas – latest trading view is in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 28, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 2.0% y-o-y to 69.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 92.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 97 bcf next week. Large storage injections are coming, but our EOS storage index is below market expectations. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 24, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 76.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 92.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 58 bcf this week. Making projections for this week's report is harder than usual due to the effects of hurricane Florence. We believe that forward curve is starting to look seriously overvalued.
Detail
September 19, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,722 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 14. We anticipate to see an injection of 86 bcf, which is 10 bcf smaller than a year ago, but also 10 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Nuclear outages are some 56% above 5-year average for this time of the year. The market has adjusted its EOS expectations to the downside.
Detail
September 18, 2018  
Higher nuclear outages and warmer weather drive consumption outlook higher. Our End-of-Injection Season storage index dropped below market expectations on Sunday afternoon. We went long November contract on Monday morning. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 15, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 10.0% y-o-y to 70.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 91.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 88 bcf next week. Our latest EOS storage projection is in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 12, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,639 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 7. We anticipate to see an injection of 71 bcf, which is 16 bcf smaller than a year ago and 3 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. There is currently a “bearish gap” between our storage projections and market’s expectations.
Detail
September 10, 2018  
Total natural gas demand continues to grow faster than consumption, a trend which has been in place since May 2015. After rising by 7.6% y-o-y in June, natural gas consumption then continued to increase, but at a more measured pace. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to remain strong, but annual growth rate will slow significantly. We expect exports to total 10.1 bcf per day in September, 10.4 bcf per day in October and 10.6 bcf per day in November. Over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster than total demand, ensuring that total supply/demand balance will be looser relative to 2017.
Detail
September 10, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 73.2 bcf per day; Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 92.0 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 73 bcf next week; We have closed all our short positions on Thursday; Latest trading results and trading view are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
September 5, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,573 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 31. We anticipate to see an injection of 68 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 3 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Weather forecast turned bearish over the weekend, but there were also other reasons to short natural gas. Latest trading results are in the report (scroll down).
Detail
August 30, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 75.0 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 15.0% y-o-y to 92.0 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 66 bcf next week. EOS storage projection for the end of March 2019 is currently above market expectations as well as above the historical norm. Scroll down to see our latest trading results and trading view.
Detail
August 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 71.7 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 91.4 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week;
Detail
August 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,440 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 17. We anticipate to see an injection of 53 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 1 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Weather forecast first turned bullish in the afternoon on August 16, but more recent changes have been relatively neutral. Above-normal CDDs/TDDs and the economics of coal-to-gas switching continue to support natural gas prices, but seasonal trends are bearish, while dry gas production recently hit a new all time-high. We have executed 40 trades over the past two months (a detailed list is included in the report - published for the first time).
Detail
August 18, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 76.0 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 91.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 52 bcf next week. The latest results from numerical weather prediction models have invigorated the bulls - but for how long?
Detail
August 15, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,390 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 10; We anticipate to see an injection of 36 bcf, which is 13 bcf smaller than a year ago and 20 bcf smaller vs 5-year average; There is currently no mispricing to take advantage of in terms of EOS expectations; Bearish risks are plenty: record high production, falling CDD/TDDs, mild winter outlook, etc. Rising nuclear outages and global LNG fundamentals are the only two bullish factors that we currently observe.
Detail
Pages:   First   Prev   3   4   5   6   7  8   9   10   11   12   Next   Last 
Copyright 2015 - 2020 © Bluegold Research     [ Terms of Use ]   [ Contacts ]
Site by Smartum IT