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March 15, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 0.5% y-o-y to 645 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 82 bcf next week.
Detail
March 14, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect the EIA to report 1,528 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 9. We anticipate a draw of 97 bcf, which is 42 bcf larger than a year ago, but in line with the five-year average. The annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018.
Detail
March 8, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 15.0% y-o-y to 650 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 86.2 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 91 bcf next week.
Detail
March 7, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect the EIA to report 1,626 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 2; We anticipate a draw of 56 bcf, which is 1 bcf smaller than a year ago and 73 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average; Annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018, but slower than was projected previously.
Detail
March 6, 2018  
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 8.0% y-o-y; In March and April, total supply is still projected to grow at a slower annual pace than total demand; However, supply/demand balance is likely to get looser in May.
Detail
March 5, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 1.0% y-o-y to 610 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 9.0% y-o-y to 86.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 53 bcf next week.
Detail
February 28, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,683 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ended Feb. 23. We anticipate to see a draw of 77 bcf, which is 70 bcf larger than a year ago but 41 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. The annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018.
Detail
February 20, 2018  
Weather models turned bullish over the weekend. Annual storage deficit is still growing. Forward curve is undervalued. Fuel cost index has set a seasonal low.
Detail
February 12, 2018  
Electric Power sector is the primary consumer of natural gas. Analyzing four key indicators to monitor. The natural gas storage level might not even reach 3,000 bcf by the end of October 2018. Either production needs to rise even more, or prices must stop falling and start rising again.
Detail
February 6, 2018  
Natural gas consumption in the U.S. increased by 8.70% yoy in November. Under the latest weather forecasts, we anticipate to see a major 21.0% annual growth rate in February. However, supply should also increase with dry gas production rising by 10%. Overall, we still expect SD balance to be tighter relative to 2017.
Detail
January 10, 2018  
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 9.9% YoY in October 2017 and continued to grow in November and December. Natural gas consumption should rise markedly in both January and February this year. Exports should continue to expand rapidly, but annual growth rate can slow due to base effects.
Detail
Examining Supply Demand Balance
December 13, 2017  

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December 11, 2017  
Believe it or not, aggregate demand for American natural has been growing in annual terms since January 2010. We anticipate to see a minor 2.6% annual growth rate in consumption in December, followed by a whopping 14.5% growth in January and an even more sizable expansion in February. However, there is lots of uncertainty to that forecast.
Detail
November 10, 2017  
We are in a quite challenging trading environment. There are strong arguments in both camps (bullish and bearish). It still makes sense to be net long and buy the dips.
Detail
November 1, 2017  
EIA has released natural gas monthly figures for August. We review them and provide our latest forecast. Exports now equate to more than 11% of national consumption. Natural gas consumption in the U.S. should to stay strong but grow very erratically. We currently expect natural gas storage to peak at 3,794 bcf in the week ending November 3.
Detail
October 31, 2017  
November (X) contract expired on October 27 and December (Z) contract became the front month (or prompt contract), which will be traded for most of September. What do we know about seasonal patterns in November (i.e., for December contract)?
Detail
October 22, 2017  
The United States has been a net exporter of natural gas for 20 consecutive days. The United States enjoys some of the best LNG export contribution margins in the world. 2018 is expected to be a record year for the delivery of natural gas power plants. Total natural gas demand per degree day is now at its highest level ever and keeps going up. Our end-of-withdrawal-season storage index is abnormally low.
Detail
October 9, 2017  
Only in 2015 has the November contract been cheaper than it is today. Unlike in 2015, however, large speculators are net long by a great margin. It is unreasonable to expect that natural gas prices can drop below $2.800 per MMBtu, let alone decline toward $2.500 per MMBtu.
Detail
October 2, 2017  
We expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to increase by 1.90% year over year in October. We currently expect natural gas storage to peak at 3,837 bcf in the week ending Nov. 10. We have made important changes to our trading strategy.
Detail
September 4, 2017  
Consumption is declining in annual terms, but exports help to keep aggregate demand strong. We expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to fall by another 3.20% y-o-y in September. We then expect consumption to recover swiftly in both October and November.
Detail
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