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August 13, 2018  
After rising by 7.9% y-o-y in May, natural gas consumption then continued to increase, but at a more measured pace. Weather-induced cooling demand grew by 9.0% and 6.5% y-o-y in June and July, respectively. Currently, we expect exports to total 10.2 bcf per day in June, 10.1 bcf per day in July and 10.4 bcf per day in August. Overall, we believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
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August 10, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% y-o-y to 76.3 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 37 bcf next week. Projected number of total degree days is still above the norm but is declining fast. November and December contracts look overvalued.
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August 8, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,355 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 3. We anticipate to see an injection of 47 bcf, which is 18 bcf larger than a year ago, but 6 smaller vs. 5-year average. For the past three weeks, the market has been adjusting is EOS storage expectations to the downside. Finally, the gap between market’s expectations and our own forecast has narrowed to a record low. A few words on the mystery of natural gas.
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August 6, 2018  
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore, the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. August has historically been the 3rd "weakest" month for renewable power. Total natural gas balance in August should be looser relative to last year by around 2.7 bcf/day.
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August 3, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 74.2 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 49 bcf next week. Our EOS storage index has dropped to 3,273 bcf on Friday morning. Our bullish bias has paid off.
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August 1, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,316 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 27. We anticipate to see an injection of 43 bcf, which is 25 bcf larger than a year ago, but exactly in line with 5-year average. Storage level will drop below 5-year minimum for the first time since January. Storage level is not expected to rise above 5-year minimum in the foreseeable future.
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July 28, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 7.0% y-o-y to 76.2 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.0 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 43 bcf next week; As expected, storage level has declinedbelow 5-year minimum by the end of July. We have significantly reduced our long exposure today.
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July 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 540 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 34 bcf this week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish over the weekend, but total demand is still above 5-year average. End-of-season storage index is still abnormally low, and we expect inventories to drop below 5-year minimum either this week or next.
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July 19, 2018  
United States has produced some 2,423 bcf of natural gas in June this year (+11.0 y-o-y). On a 12-month average basis, production growth rate is about to reach a mid-term peak. Natural gas producers hate current prices. Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down to see more).
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July 18, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,258 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ended July 13. We anticipate an injection of 55 bcf, which is 24 bcf more than a year ago, but 7 bcf less than the five-year average. Market expectations are too bearish in both the short and long term.
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July 13, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 528 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 89.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 52 bcf next week.
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July 11, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,207 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 6. We anticipate to see an injection of 55 bcf, which is 4 bcf smaller than a year ago and 22 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Storage level could still decline below five-year minimum by the end of July if key market variables remain unchanged.
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July 8, 2018  
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. The recent 5% drop in the price of Henry Hub prompt month contract from late June has led us to revise higher our outlook for coal-to-gas switching. July has historically been the 4th weakest month for renewable power output. Total natural gas balance in July will be looser relative to last year by around 2.6 bcf/day.
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July 6, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% y-o-y to 530 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 90.4 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 54 bcf next week.
Detail
July 2, 2018  
Natural gas consumption surged by almost 22% y-o-y in April this year and then continue to expand in May and June but at a more measured pace. The volume of total exports is now equivalent to almost 12.0% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to remain strong in both relative and absolute terms. Annual storage deficit will continue to shrink in July-September, but only to an extent. After today's 2.5% drop in the value of August contract, the outlook for coal-to-gas switching has improved.
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June 27, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,073 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending June 22. We anticipate to see an injection of 69 bcf, which is 21 bcf larger than a year ago, but 3 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. So far, we have been confidently buying the dips in August contract, but are now beginning to think about short positions.
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June 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 495 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 88.4 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish yesterday afternoon; More bearish changes in weather are necessary to shrink storage deficit.
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June 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,998 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending June 15; We anticipate to see an injection of 85 bcf, which is 22 bcf larger than a year ago and 2 bcf larger vs 5-year average; Last winter has shown that storage level can drop by more than 1.0 Tcf in just four weeks; Therefore,there is still a need to inject an adequate amount of natural gas into the undergroundstorage this summer and fall.
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June 19, 2018  
Over the past five months there has not been a single strong reason to be bearish on natural gas. Dry gas production has been essentially flat for the past six months. The extended-range ECMWF model has not issued a single bearish weather forecast since April 30. In historical terms, supply and demand are more or less balanced.
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June 7, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,819 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending June 1. We anticipate to see an injection of 94 bcf, which is 9 bcf smaller than a year ago and 10 bcf smaller vs 5-year average. Storage level could still decline below five-year minimum by the end of July if key market variables remain unchanged.
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