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Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions
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March 30, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 17.0% y-o-y to 580 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 29 bcf next week.
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March 29, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,380 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 23. We anticipate to see a draw of 66 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 20 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until the end of April 2018.
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March 26, 2018
The weight of the Electric Power in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spreads are near records lows. Coal-to-gas switching is estimated to be around 7 bcf/day. April has historically been the strongest month for renewable power output.
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March 22, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 17.0% y-o-y to 620 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 87.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 62 bcf next week.
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March 21, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,449 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 16. We anticipate to see a draw of 83 bcf, which is 54 bcf smaller than a year ago, but 30 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Double storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until the end of April, 2018.
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March 19, 2018
Dominion Energy has exported the first LNG cargo from its Cove Point facility. The spread between U.S. Gulf Cost LNG and Henry Hub is back to its historical average. Introducing new weekly publication on LNG market with a specific focus on Unites States.
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March 15, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 0.5% y-o-y to 645 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 82 bcf next week.
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March 14, 2018
This Thursday, we expect the EIA to report 1,528 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 9. We anticipate a draw of 97 bcf, which is 42 bcf larger than a year ago, but in line with the five-year average. The annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018.
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March 8, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 15.0% y-o-y to 650 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 86.2 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 91 bcf next week.
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March 7, 2018
This Thursday, we expect the EIA to report 1,626 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending March 2; We anticipate a draw of 56 bcf, which is 1 bcf smaller than a year ago and 73 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average; Annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018, but slower than was projected previously.
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March 6, 2018
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 8.0% y-o-y; In March and April, total supply is still projected to grow at a slower annual pace than total demand; However, supply/demand balance is likely to get looser in May.
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March 5, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 1.0% y-o-y to 610 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 9.0% y-o-y to 86.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 53 bcf next week.
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February 28, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,683 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ended Feb. 23. We anticipate to see a draw of 77 bcf, which is 70 bcf larger than a year ago but 41 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. The annual storage deficit is expected to continue expanding until May 2018.
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February 20, 2018
Weather models turned bullish over the weekend. Annual storage deficit is still growing. Forward curve is undervalued. Fuel cost index has set a seasonal low.
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February 12, 2018
Electric Power sector is the primary consumer of natural gas. Analyzing four key indicators to monitor. The natural gas storage level might not even reach 3,000 bcf by the end of October 2018. Either production needs to rise even more, or prices must stop falling and start rising again.
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February 6, 2018
Natural gas consumption in the U.S. increased by 8.70% yoy in November. Under the latest weather forecasts, we anticipate to see a major 21.0% annual growth rate in February. However, supply should also increase with dry gas production rising by 10%. Overall, we still expect SD balance to be tighter relative to 2017.
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January 10, 2018
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 9.9% YoY in October 2017 and continued to grow in November and December. Natural gas consumption should rise markedly in both January and February this year. Exports should continue to expand rapidly, but annual growth rate can slow due to base effects.
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Examining Supply Demand Balance
December 13, 2017
 - available for members only
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December 11, 2017
Believe it or not, aggregate demand for American natural has been growing in annual terms since January 2010. We anticipate to see a minor 2.6% annual growth rate in consumption in December, followed by a whopping 14.5% growth in January and an even more sizable expansion in February. However, there is lots of uncertainty to that forecast.
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November 10, 2017
We are in a quite challenging trading environment. There are strong arguments in both camps (bullish and bearish). It still makes sense to be net long and buy the dips.
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