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Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions
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August 30, 2017
The October contract is one of the least volatile natural gas contracts. The level of returns has fluctuated between +16.82% and -12.68%. The trend has been bearish in 56% of cases.
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August 29, 2017
We have started to provide and regularly update our end-of-withdrawal-season storage index. Five coldest months (November-March) could witness 3,500 heating-degree-days, 3% above the norm. Total natural gas demand per degree day is now higher than at any time in history.
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August 2, 2017
Natural gas consumption declined in annual terms in June and July and will probably decline further in August. However, consumption growth should pick up some pace in autumn - possibly, growing by as much as 9% y-o-y in October. On a 12-month average basis, exports now equate to more than 10% of national consumption. Under the latest weather forecast and with prices below $2.85 per MMBtu, we are unlikely to see natural gas storage reach 5-year average by the end of October 2017.
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July 31, 2017
September contract is one of the least volatile natural gas contracts. The level of returns has fluctuated between +4.33% and -13.34%. The trend has been bearish in 67% of cases.
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July 11, 2017
Production forecast was revised lower. NG/coal spread turned negative, which is very uncommon for summer months. Natural gas is driven by daily changes in fundamentals.
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July 6, 2017
Recovering production is the most likely reason for the decline. Lower prices are tightening the balance again. July reports are not priced in.
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June 21, 2017
There is no ironclad way of knowing the future. But there are tools that can give you a rough idea about what it may look like. Simple linear regression returns a December 2017 contract price of $4.026 per MMBtu.
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June 13, 2017
There is a distressed supply situation in natural gas. Today's price action is an abomination. The balancing price is above $3.30 per MMBtu.
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June 5, 2017
Residential consumption of natural gas has been essentially flat for the past five years. This summer, we expect natural gas consumption to decline in annual terms. But total demand is expected to remain largely unchanged from previous year.
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May 31, 2017
Supply and demand forecasts have been getting more bearish since May 12. Power burn remains weak and end-of-season storage index stands above market expectations. Retail traders are buying the dip.
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May 30, 2017
The July contract is one of most volatile natural gas contracts to trade. The level of returns has fluctuated between +35.99% and -11.25%. The trend has been bullish in 55% of cases. The latest forecasts indicate that a bearish trend is more probable this year.
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May 10, 2017
Liquefied natural gas is currently one of the fastest-growing internationally traded commodities in the world. The U.S. has all the preconditions to become a major player (if not the leader) in the global LNG market. Natural gas traders should start paying attention to LNG metrics - particularly, export contribution margin.
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April 6, 2017
Injection season demand is highly price-elastic. The market wants to avoid a distressed supply situation before next winter. End-of-injection season storage forecast is the key.
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March 20, 2017
The EOS forecast is an important, but often misunderstood, concept. This forecast is a product of a complex, multi-parameter cycle model. The EOS forecast should be viewed as an indicator, not as a forecast per se.
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December 5, 2016
We are starting to see more similarities with 2013-2014 winter.
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November 13, 2016
Due to structural changes, consumption per degree day is on the rise. It is a very slow, but powerful process.
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August 23, 2016
Summary of the latest forecasts
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August 22, 2016
Comparing natural gas market fundamentals - 2016 vs 2012. Part II
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August 19, 2016
Understanding natural gas forward spread
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August 17, 2016
We have decided to compare our end-of-season natural gas storage forecast with other analysts' projections.
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