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Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions
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June 5, 2018
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 8.8% y-o-y in March 2018. In May, natural gas consumption probably reached a seasonal record low of 63.6 bcf/d, as heating demand weakened, while cooling demand was still relatively subdued. Over the next three months, total demand will be growing slower than total supply. But we do not currently expect double storage deficit to dissipate this year.
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June 4, 2018
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow; Despite rallying by more than 16% over the past four months, natural gas maintains its price-competitiveness relative to coal; Coal-to-gas switching is estimated to be around 6 bcf per day, 0.5 bcf more than in 2017; June has historically been the 5th strongest month for renewable power output; Total supply / demand balance in June will be looser relative to 2017, but storage deficit will remain almost intact.
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June 1, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% y-o-y to 470 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 88.0 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 95 bcf next week. Storage level is likely to fall below 5-year minimum in July (in case key market variables stay the same).
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May 30, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,734 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 25. We anticipate to see an injection of 105 bcf, which is 25 bcf larger than a year ago and 8 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. If weather forecast stays unchanged, storage deficit (relative to 5-year average) will grow in June.
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May 29, 2018
There has not been a single bearish change in the weather forecast since May 20. U.S. Lower-48 dry gas production has reached 80 bcf/d up 2.2% from last December. The long-term weather forecast coupled with the economics of coal-to-gas switching is still yielding a very low EOS storage figure – only 3,346 bcf. All extremes (whether bullish or bearish) eventuallynormalize – stay strong.
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May 25, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 450 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 88.0 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 111 bcf next week.
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May 23, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,628 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 18. We anticipate to see an injection of 90 bcf, which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago and 1 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to shrink for the rest of May at an average rate of 18 bcf per week. The market seems to be too bullish in the short term and too bearish in the long term.
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May 22, 2018
Our futures portfolio has been net-long natural gas since mid-February, but not any more. Did we make a mistake by closing all the remaining long positions today? There is a hope that not.
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May 17, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 4.0% y-o-y to 460 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 87.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 97 bcf next week.
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May 16, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,541 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 11. We anticipate to see an injection of 109 bcf, which is 45 bcf larger than a year ago and 22 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to shrink for the rest of May at an average rate of 23 bcf per week. We do not currently expect storage deficit to dissipate this year.
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May 11, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 450 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 109 bcf next week.
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May 9, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,437 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending May 4. We anticipate to see an injection of 94 bcf, which is 45 bcf larger than a year ago and 19 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to shrink throughout May at around 34 bcf per week. Since December 2017, dry gas production increased by only 1.3 bcf/d. Total natural gas supply has been essentially flat for five months now.
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May 4, 2018
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 14.0% y-o-y in February 2018. In April, natural gas consumption probably reached a seasonal record (77.3 bcf per day) due to abnormally cold weather. Over the next three months, total demand will be growing slower than total supply. But we do not currently expect annual storage deficit to disappear this year at all.
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May 3, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 470 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 87.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 91 bcf next week.
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May 2, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,338 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending April 27. We anticipate seeing an injection of 57 bcf, which is 11 bcf smaller than a year ago and 12 bcf smaller vs 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to start shrinking in May at around 31 bcf per week. However, 5-year average deficit is expected to remain relatively unchanged for another two months.
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April 30, 2018
The weight of the Electric Power in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spreads have increased, but remain historically low for this time of the year. Coal-to-gas switching is estimated to be around 6 bcf per day, 1.5 bcf more than in 2017. May has historically been the 2nd strongest month for renewable power output. Annual storage deficit should contract in May, but at a relatively slow pace.
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April 26, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 480 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 87.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 61 bcf next week.
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April 25, 2018
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 1,287 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending April 20. We anticipate to see a draw of 12 bcf, which is 83 bcf larger than a year ago and 72 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Annual storage deficit is expected to start shrinking in May at around 25 bcf per week. However, 5-year average deficit is expected to remain relatively unchanged for another two months (at least).
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April 23, 2018
Global LNG prices continue to decline due to seasonal factors, but are still up 35% from last year. Despite the fact that global LNG prices are falling, the U.S. contract has been trending up over the past 20 trading sessions. U.S. continues to enjoy a healthy LNG export contribution margin - good news for Dominion Energy and Cheniere Energy. Top ten importers consumed 5% more LNG in March this year.
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April 20, 2018
Total demand for American natural gas is up 34.0% y-o-y to 580 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 87.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 7 bcf next week.
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