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May 31 Natural Gas Storage Report: 5-Year Average Deficit Is Likely To Increase In June

May 30, 2018  

U.S. Energy Information Administration should report a larger change in natural gas storage this week compared to the week prior. We anticipate to see an injection of 105 bcf (5 bcf larger than the comparable figure in ICE's latest report for the EII-U.S. EIA Financial Weekly Index, 25 bcf larger than a year ago and 8 bcf larger vs. 5-year average for this time of the year).

Last week, the number of total degree-days (TDDs) dropped by 2% w-o-w, as cooling demand was not able to compensate for the total disappearance of heating demand. Still, total energy demand (for heating and cooling combined) was some 13% above last year's level and well above 30-year norm. Cooling demand was especially strong in the Midwest part of the country. Heating degree-days (HDDs) have reached the point, where they are no longer relevant and have no effect on natural gas consumption. Cooling degree-days (CDDs) now have a disproportionately stronger effect on consumption and traders should be paying attention to changes in CDDs.

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