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June 22 Natural Gas Weekly: Weather Pushed The Price Up And Weather Must Pull It Down

June 23, 2018  

Total Supply/Demand Balance

We estimate that aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 495 bcf this week (up 4.5% w-o-w and up 5.0% y-o-y). The deviation from the norm stayed positive, but increased only marginally: from +19% to +21% (see the chart below). According to our calculations, aggregate demand for U.S. natural gas (on a weekly basis) has been above 9-year norm since February 24, 2017. The weather conditions were relatively hot – especially in the Central and Southeast parts of the country. We estimate that the number of cooling degree-days (CDDs) increased by no less than 10% w-o-w, but was some 5% below last year’s level.

Total exports were up 2.0% w-o-w – primarily due to stronger LNG demand, whereas pipeline exports to Canada and Mexico declined. According to Marine Traffic data, no less than four LNG tankers (total natural gas carrying capacity of 13 bcf) departed from Sabine Pass over the past seven days. Also, one vessel (3 bcf capacity) has departed from Cove Point. In annual terms, total exports were up 29.0%.

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