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Natural Gas Trading: Supply-Demand Balance Is Bearish, But Not Significantly So

May 5, 2019  

This report covers the week ending May 3, 2019.

TOTAL DEMAND

We estimate that aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 596 bcf for the week ending May 3 (up 10.2% w-o-w and up 13.2% y-o-y). The deviation from the norm remained positive and increased from +9% to +18%.

This week, the weather conditions have been abnormally bullish as both heating and cooling demand increased in different parts of the U.S. We estimate that the number of nationwide heating degree-days (HDDs) was up +16 w-o-w, while the number of cooling degree-days (CDDs) was up +10 w-o-w in the week ending May 3. Overall, total energy demand (measured in total degree-days) should be above last year’s level by around 37%.

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