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Natural Gas Trading: Bearish Technicals Vs. Neutral Fundamentals

May 22, 2019  

Trading Positions

We have reduced our short exposure earlier today and have slightly increased our long exposure. So far, the return on invested capital in May has been 9.00% in futures and 4.90% in ETNs (see the tables below).

Technicals

Earlier today, natural gas July contract has broken out of an ascending wedge (see the chart below). Should this technical pattern perform according to the textbook, July contract is heading towards $2.560 per MMbtu.

The Weather

Last week, the number of heating degree-days (HDDs) increased by 9.0% w-o-w, as weather conditions cooled down across the country. We estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree-days - TDDs) was approximately 6.0% above last year's level and 9.0% above the norm.

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