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Natural Gas Fundamentals: EOS Storage Indices Are Below Market Expectations

May 24, 2019  

Total Demand

We estimate that aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 556 bcf for the week ending May 24 (down 1.3% w-o-w but up 6.5% y-o-y). The deviation from the norm remained positive, but increased only slightly from +16.8% to +17.6% (see the chart below).

This week, the weather conditions have warmed up significantly across the Lower-48 states. We estimate that the number nationwide cooling degree-days (CDDs) surged by no less than 55.0% w-o-w. Overall, total energy demand (measured in total degree-days) should be above last year's level by around 13.0%.

However, non-degree day factors were mixed. The most important four non-degree-day factors that we are looking at are: nuclear outagesthe spread between natural gas and coal (coal-to-gas switching)wind speeds, and hydro inflows.

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