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Natural Gas Storage Forecast: Annual Storage Surplus Keeps Growing

September 4, 2019  

The Weather

Last week, the number of cooling degree-days (CDDs) plunged by 19.0% w-o-w (from 94 to 76), as weather conditions cooled down across the country. Heating demand has increased but remains too weak to have any significant impact on natural gas consumption. We estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree-days, or TDDs) was approximately 15% below last year’s level, but mostly within the norm (see the chart below).

This week, the weather conditions have warmed up again. We estimate that the number of nationwide CDDs will rise by 10.0% w-o-w in the week ending September 6. Total average daily demand for natural gas for that week should be somewhere between 85 and 90 bcf/d, which is approximately 19% above 5-year average for this time of the year. However, total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be around 1.0% below last year’s level.

Next week, the weather conditions are expected to get cooler, but in absolute terms, the temperatures are expected to remain above the norm. The number of CDDs is currently projected to drop by 11.0% w-o-w for the week ending September 13. At the same time, the number of heating degree days (HDDs) is projected to more than double (from 1.4 to 4.7). In annual terms, total energy demand is expected to remain elevated (around 24% above last year’s level), while the deviation from the norm would rise to +20.0% (see the chart below).

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