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Natural Gas Storage Forecast: First Bullish Build In 15 Weeks

November 6, 2019  

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending November 1), the number of heating degree days (HDDs) surged by no less than 65.0% w-o-w (from 61 to 102), as weather conditions cooled down significantly across the Lower-48 states. Cooling demand has dropped by about 48.0% and remains too weak to have a meaningful impact on natural gas consumption. We estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was approximately 34.0% above last year's level and 26.0% above the norm (see the chart below).

This week

This week (ending November 8), the weather conditions are cooling down even more. We estimate that the number of nationwide HDDs will rise by 17.0% w-o-w (from 102 to 120), while the number of nationwide CDDs will drop by 12% (from 9 to 8). Total average daily demand for natural gas should be somewhere between 96 bcf/d and 101 bcf/d, which is approximately 28.0% above the 5-year average for this time of the year. Total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be around 14.0% above last year's level and as much as 26% above the norm.

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