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Natural Gas Market Overview: Annual Storage Surplus Is Likely To Shrink By More Than 200 Bcf By The End Of January

December 6, 2019  

This report covers the week ending December 6, 2019.

Total Demand

We estimate that the aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 803 bcf for the week ending December 6 (up 8.8% w-o-w (week over week) and up 3.1% y-o-y (year over year)). The deviation from the norm remained positive and actually increased from +17% to +21% (see the chart below). We estimate that total demand has been above the five-year norm for 47 consecutive weeks now.

This week, the weather conditions have cooled down across the Lower-48 states. We estimate that the number of nationwide heating degree-days (HDDs) increased by 12.0% (from 139 to 155). However, total energy demand (measured in total degree-days - TDDs) should be 10.7% below last year's level and 4.70% below the norm.

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