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Natural Gas Demand Is Rising, But Production Has Reached A Major Long-Term Peak

December 11, 2019  

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending December 6), the number of heating degree days (HDDs) jumped by 12.00% w-o-w (from 139 to 155), as weather conditions cooled down across the Lower-48 states. Cooling demand has plunged by about 45.0% and remains too weak to have a meaningful impact on natural gas consumption. Despite higher HDDs, we estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was approximately 10.2% below last year's level and 4.8% below the norm.

This week

This week (ending December 13), the weather conditions are getting colder, but only slightly. We estimate that the number of nationwide HDDs will edge up by 2.0% w-o-w (from 155 to 158). Total average daily demand for natural gas should be somewhere between 110 bcf/d and 120 bcf/d, which is approximately 15.7% above the 5-year average for this time of the year. However, total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be 9.3% below the norm and 11.6% below last year's level.

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