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Natural Gas Market Overview: Total Supply-Demand Balance To Tighten Substantially Next Week

December 14, 2019  

This report covers the week ending December 13, 2019.

Total Demand

We estimate that the aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 804 bcf for the week ending December 13 (down 1.3% w-o-w (week over week), but up 0.3% y-o-y (year over year)). The deviation from the norm remained positive, but declined from +23% to +15% (see the chart below). We estimate that total demand has been above the five-year norm for 48 consecutive weeks now.

This week, the weather conditions have cooled down across the Lower-48 states, but only slightly. We estimate that the number of nationwide heating degree-days (HDDs) increased by 3.9% (from 155 to 161). However, total energy demand (measured in total degree-days - TDDs) should be 9.8% below last year's level and 7.6% below the norm.

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