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Natural Gas Storage: End-Of-Season Expectations Seem To Be Too Bearish

January 8, 2020  

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending January 3), the number of heating degree days (HDDs) edged up by 4.4% w-o-w (from 139 to 145). Cooling demand remains too weak to have a meaningful impact on natural gas consumption. Despite higher HDDs, we estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was approximately 16.7% below last year's level and as much as 26.4% below 30-year norm.

This week

This week (ending January 10), the weather conditions are getting colder. We estimate that the number of nationwide HDDs will jump by 9.6% w-o-w (from 145 to 159). Total average daily demand for natural gas should be somewhere between 114 bcf/d and 118 bcf/d, which is approximately 5.6% above the 5-year average for this time of the year. However, total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be some 2.5% below last year's level and as much as 21.1% below the 30-year norm.

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