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Natural Gas Storage: End-Of-Season Storage Expectations Are Still Excessively Bearish

January 15, 2020  

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending January 10), the number of heating degree days (HDDs) increased by 9.7% w-o-w (from 145 to 159). Cooling demand remained too weak to have a meaningful impact on natural gas consumption. Despite higher HDDs, we estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was approximately 2.2% below last year's level and as much as 20.9% below 30-year norm.

This week

This week (ending January 17), the weather conditions are getting warmer, but only slightly. We estimate that the number of nationwide HDDs will edge down by about 2.6% w-o-w (from 159 to 155). Total average daily demand for natural gas should be somewhere between 112 bcf/d and 116 bcf/d, which is approximately 0.6% below the 5-year average for this time of the year. Total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be some 16.9% below last year's level and as much as 21.1% below the 30-year norm.

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