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Natural Gas Market Overview: Total Degree Days To Reach A Near-Term Low On February 3

January 31, 2020  

This report covers the week ending January 31, 2020.

Total Demand

We estimate that the aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) totaled around 836 bcf for the week ending January 31 (down 9.6% w-o-w (week over week) and down as much as 12.3% y-o-y (year over year)). However, the deviation from the norm remained positive but dropped sharply from +23.90% to +9.80%. We estimate that total demand has been above the five-year norm for 55 consecutive weeks now.

This week, the weather conditions have warmed up significantly across the Lower-48 states. We estimate that the number of nationwide heating degree-days (HDDs) plunged by 17.6% w-o-w (from 198 to 163). Total energy demand (measured in total degree-days - TDDs) should be some 17.3% below the norm and as much as 32.4% below last year's level.

Consumption-wise, Friday's 00z and 06z short-range weather models were bearish (vs. previous results). TDDs are generally projected to trend higher, but remain below the norm (until at least Feb. 10 - Feb. 11). TDDs are expected to reach a near-term low on February 3.

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