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February 2020: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

February 11, 2020  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has recently released their natural gas monthly statistics for November 2019. In this article, we will briefly review their consumption and exports figures, then look at our estimates for December and January, and conclude with our latest forecast for February, March and April.

November Overview

Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 3.00% y-o-y in November 2019 to 104.6 bcf/d. Despite the fact that there were 2.0% fewer total degree days (TDDs) than there were last year, natural gas consumption edged down by just 0.40% y-o-y to 89.95 bcf/d. Exports surged by as much as 30.30% y-o-y to 14.70 bcf/d.

Overall, year-over-year total consumption of dry natural gas in November 2019 decreased in three of the four consuming sectors. Deliveries of natural gas by consuming sector in November 2019 were:

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