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End of Withdrawal Season Storage Forecast


Last update: December 12, 2017, 3:37 EST
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Description

End of Withdrawal Season Storage Index (EOwS) chart shows the development of our forecasts for the EOS inventory number. It also displays implied market expectations and the price of natural gas futures. EOwS storage index is a product of a complex, multi-parameter cycle model. It should be viewed as an indicator rather than as a forecast per se. The primary purpose of this index is to help traders ascertain the “adequacy” of natural gas price.  For more information about EOS indices, please click here. Scroll down to see historical performance.

To see similar chart for the end of injection season, please click here.

Updated every weekday by 9 AM Eastern time.

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Definitions

  • Inventory Forecast - Bluegold Research end-of-season (EOS) storage forecast (for the week ending March 30, 2018).
  • 5-day average - arithmetic average of Bluegold Research EOS storage forecasts over the last five updates.
  • Market Expectations - settle price on ICE's EIA Future contracts (for the week ending April 12, 2018).
  • Natgas Futures Price - Henry Hub NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Price (prompt contract, close).

Historical Performance

Essentially, EOS indices reflect price anomalies. As a general rule, when our EOS inventory number is below market expectations (and trending down), price tends to increase; when our EOS inventory number is above market expectations (and trending up), price tends to fall. Please remember that EOS index is not the only factor influencing the price of natural gas. There are many other factors involved, including short-term events and technical indicators.   

Winter 2016-2017

  1. September 30, 2016. EOwS storage index is 8% below market expectations. Price goes up;
  2. October 17, 2016. EOwS storage index is 10% above market expectations. Price goes down;
  3. November 9, 2016. EOwS storage index is 11% below market expectations. Price goes up;
  4. December 2, 2016. EOwS storage index is largely in line with market expectations. Price goes down;
  5. December 20, 2016. EOwS storage index is 15% below market expectations. Price goes up;
  6. February 3, 2017. EOwS storage index is in line with market expectations and is trending up. Price goes down.
  7. End of February, 2017. Market focus shifts to injection season economics. 
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