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Last update: December 12, 2017, 3:37 EST
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Description

Expectations Gap chart (aka "predicted surprise") shows the difference between our storage forecast and storage figures reported in the ICE EIA Financial Weekly Index. We calculate the sum of projections for two, three and four EIA reports, then calculate the difference. While the relationship between natural gas price and ICE Financial Weekly Index has not been fully researched yet, we believe that the expectations gap can serve as a measure of price adequacy - i.e., show to what extent the market has priced in upcoming bullish or bearish reports. 

  • Positive figures mean that we expect either smaller draws from natural gas storage or bigger injections into natural gas storage than indicated in ICE reports. Positive figures imply what we call a “potential bearish surprise”.
  • Negative figures mean that we expect either bigger draws from natural gas storage or smaller injections into natural gas storage than indicated in ICE reports. Negative figures imply what we call a “potential bullish surprise”.

Data is available from October 19, 2016.

Updated every weekday by 9 AM Eastern time.

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

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