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Days of Supply of Crude Oil (deviation) and WTI Spot Price


Last update: August 16, 2017, 14:29 EDT

Description

Days of supply (DoS) is a measure of the adequacy of crude oil inventories.  It is calculated by taking the current stock level and dividing it by product supplied (used as an estimate of demand) averaged over the most recent four-week period. For crude oil, refinery inputs of crude oil are used as a proxy for demand. This chart shows the deviation of DoS from the norm. Norm is defined as a five-year average. Note, that left axis is inverted to show a theoretical correlation with oil price. It is assumed that negative or declining DoS deviation should result in higher prices for oil, while positive or rising DoS deviation should lead to price declines. Therefore, left axis is inverted.  

Definitions

  • DoS (actual) - crude oil days of supply deviation from 5-year average;
  • DoS (forecast) - EIA projected days of supply deviation from 5-year average;
  • WTI Spot Price - average weekly price of crude oil WTI spot price FOB;
  • Price Forecast (previous) - EIA forecast for WTI spot average price, issued more than a month ago;
  • Price Forecast (latest) - EIA forecast for WTI spot average price, issued less than a month ago.

Updated every Wednesday by 6 PM Eastern time.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bluegold Research calculations

 

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