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Retail Sentiment in Crude Oil

6 Months   1 Year   3 Years   Max
Last update: January 23, 2019, 7:03 EST


Retail Sentiment chart displays the ratio of bullish-to-bearish sentiments, as published by, a global financial portal and IG Group, the world's largest provider of CFDs. It is widely assumed that the majority of retail traders are usually wrong in their assessment about future price direction and tend to oppose the prevailing trend. Therefore, one possible way to make money in crude oil trading is to do the opposite of what retail traders are doing. In other words, one can use retail sentiment chart as a contrarian indicator. When most are long, expect price losses. When most are short, expect price gains. Surely, this is a very simplistic approach, but can still offer additional guidance at trading.

  • values above 1 indicate a net-bullish sentiment;
  • values below 1 indicate a net-bearish sentiment;
  • a change in ratio is just as important as the ratio itself; 
  • it has been observed that retail traders eventually get it right, but only at the very extremes - i.e., when long-to-short ratio is either close to 2.50 (for long positions) or near 0.30 for (short positions).

Data is available from April 17, 2017.

Updated every weekday by 9 AM Eastern time.

Source:, IG Group, CME Group, Bluegold Research calculations

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