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Natural Gas Supply Demand Balance (delta, y-o-y)


Last update: February 22, 2018, 6:52 EST
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Description

SD Balance daily chart plots annual differences in Supply/Demand (SD) balances against the annual change in natural gas price.

To read more about SD Balance, please click here

Definitions

  • SD Balance Benchmark = total supply minus 5-year average demand. SD Balance benchmark essentially shows the strength of the underlying supply. If it is positive, it means that supply can totally satisfy 5-year average demand, which is good for the bears. Conversely, the bulls want to see negative SD Balance benchmark. Blue area on the chart shows annual difference in SD Balance benchmark.
  • Actual SD Balance = total supply minus total projected/estimated demand. This is a more realistic calculation of the actual SD Balance on the ground. The bulls want actual SD Balance to be as small as possible, while the bears want it to be as large as possible. Orange bars on the chart show the annual difference in actual SD Balance.   
  • Natgas Futures Price - simple moving (5-day) average price of natural gas prompt month futures contract (NYMEX Henry Hub). White line on the chart shows annual difference in price. 
  • Forward Curve - the latest forward curve (difference vs a year ago). 

Updated every weekday by 9 AM Eastern time.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, NOAA National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center, CME Group, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

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