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El Nino-Southern Oscillation Updates

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Date: August 15, 2017

The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over much of the central tropical Pacific during the past four weeks, and are now close to the long-term average, and within the neutral range. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also remains neutral, having steadied over the past three weeks. Other indicators of ENSO, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds are also at neutral levels.

NOAA National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center

Date: August 14, 2017

  • ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.
  • Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across most of the Pacific Ocean. 
  • ENSO-Neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Date: August 10, 2017

In mid-August 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with near-average SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific and the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition through Northern Hemisphere fall and into winter with chances for El Niño development one-half or less (i.e., less than about 25% each) the chances for neutral.

World Meteorological Organization

Date: July 7, 2017

  • Although sea surface temperatures have been near the threshold of El Niño, the tropical atmosphere has been unresponsive, and therefore ENSO-neutral conditions continue;
  • Models surveyed and expert opinion suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of 2017. Chances of ENSO-neutral are in the predicted range of 50-60% during the second half of 2017, while El Niño development is the next most likely scenario, with only a very small chance for La Niña.
  • The state of ENSO will continue to be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate variability will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.


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