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El Nino-Southern Oscillation Updates

NOAA National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center

Date: September 9, 2019

  • ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
  • Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the western Pacific Ocean and are below average in the eastern Pacific.
  • The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with ENSO-neutral.
  • ENSO-neutral is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Date: September 3, 2019

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to be the main influence on Australian climate.

The IOD index has generally been above the positive IOD threshold since mid-July. The broader Indian Ocean patterns of sea surface temperature, cloud, and wind have been positive IOD-like since late May, contributing to dry conditions affecting most of Australia.

All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD is likely to continue for the southern hemisphere spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia, and an increased fire risk in the southeast.

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral with respect to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are generally close to average, reflecting neutral tropical Pacific cloud and rainfall patterns.

Most climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2019 and into early 2020, meaning other climate drivers, like the IOD, are likely to remain as the primary influences on Australian and global weather.

Outlook

All eight surveyed international climate models indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels until at least late 2019. One model indicates that values for December and January may pass La Niña thresholds, but the remaining models are all clearly predicting NINO3.4 values within the neutral range.


International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Date: August 19, 2019

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.


World Meteorological Organization

Date: May 27, 2019

  • Sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline to weak El Niño levels in April and early May 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns have also been present.
  • Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 60-65% chance that El Nino will be present during June-August 2019.
  • Chances for El Niño continuing into the following season of September-November fall to near 50%. However, long-lead outlooks made at this time of year are particularly more uncertain beyond August.
  • Sea surface temperatures are most likely to be about 0.5 to 0.9 degrees Celsius above average in the east-central topical Pacific during the June-August 2019 season. A strong El Niño event during 2019 appears unlikely.
  • Through the September-November season of 2019, the development of La Niña is extremely unlikely.


 

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