Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions

SNAPSHOT
Home Membership Trading Guide Research Track Record Update Schedule Contacts

NOAA National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center

Date: February 25, 2019

  • El Niño conditions are present.
  • Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. 
  • The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Niño. 
  • Weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Date: February 19, 2019

SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, now carrying an El Niño advisory, calls for a 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Feb-Apr, decreasing to 50% for Apr-Jun.


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Date: February 19, 2019

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.

El Niño typically results in below average autumn and winter rainfall for southern and eastern Australia.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed slightly in the past fortnight. In the sub-surface, weak warmth extends down to 175 m depth. Recent weakening of the trade winds in the western Pacific means that further warming of the equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming weeks to months.

Five of eight climate models indicate the central Pacific is likely to reach borderline or weak El Niño levels during autumn, with four models remaining above threshold levels into winter. El Niño predictions made in late summer and early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with some caution.


World Meteorological Organization

Date: November 27, 2018

  • Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at a weak El Niño level since October 2018, but the corresponding El Niño patterns have not developed in the atmosphere.
  • Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 75-80% chance that the ocean and atmosphere will couple, leading to the occurrence of an El Niño during the period December 2018-February 2019. Odds are about 60% for El Niño to continue through February-April 2019.
  • Model predictions and expert opinion also lead us to expect a weak to moderate El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures of about 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average in the east-central tropical Pacific for the December 2018-February 2019 season. A strong El Niño event appears unlikely at this stage.
  • Through Northern Hemisphere spring 2019, the development of La Niña is highly unlikely.
Copyright 2015 - 2019 © Bluegold Research     [ Terms of Use ]   [ Contacts ]
Site by Smartum IT