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El Nino-Southern Oscillation Updates

NOAA National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center

Date: July 15, 2019

  • El Niño is present.
  • Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. 
  • The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with El Niño. 
  • A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Date: July 11, 2019

SSTs in the central Pacific maintained at a weak El Niño level during June and early July, while temperature anomalies of subsurface waters cooled to near-average. Some patterns in the atmosphere continue to show El Niño conditions intermittently. Collective model forecasts show a likely transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral by late summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, still with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral by Jul-Sep, and neutral remains the most likely category through fall and winter.


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Date: July 9, 2019

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months meaning the ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE. Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning an increased likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring.

Most indicators of ENSO are neutral. Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain slightly warmer than average, but in the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds, have been close to average, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the only ENSO indicator that has continued to hover close to El Niño thresholds.

Climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will maintain an ENSO-neutral state through the austral winter and spring.

Outlook

All but one of the eight surveyed international climate models indicate NINO3.4 will be within ENSO-neutral thresholds for July. From August onwards, all surveyed models predict an ENSO-neutral state for the coming months.


World Meteorological Organization

Date: May 27, 2019

  • Sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline to weak El Niño levels in April and early May 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns have also been present.
  • Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 60-65% chance that El Nino will be present during June-August 2019.
  • Chances for El Niño continuing into the following season of September-November fall to near 50%. However, long-lead outlooks made at this time of year are particularly more uncertain beyond August.
  • Sea surface temperatures are most likely to be about 0.5 to 0.9 degrees Celsius above average in the east-central topical Pacific during the June-August 2019 season. A strong El Niño event during 2019 appears unlikely.
  • Through the September-November season of 2019, the development of La Niña is extremely unlikely.


 

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