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Natural Gas Total Supply-Demand Balance


       
  1 Year   3 Years   5 Years   Max
Last update: February 20, 2019, 6:42 EST
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Description

This chart shows historical statistics on total natural gas balance in the U.S and annual change in that balance. It also displays our two-month estimate and a three-month forecast (dotted line). All figures are given in billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). Total Balance = total supply (dry gas production + imports) minus total demand (consumption + exports).

Historical data is available from January 2008.

The chart is interactive. You can click on any series in the legend to hide/show the data. You can also click on the chart and drag out a specific area you wish to zoom. Alternatively, use calendar filter to select a specific data range. Also, to print or download the chart, click on the "menu" button in the top right corner of the chart.

Update: every weekday + Sunday afternoon.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Traders' Note

Total Natural Gas Balance chart sums up key market variables. When total demand is below total supply, the total balance is positive and excess gas is being put into storage (injection season). When total demand is above total supply, the total balance is negative and natural gas is being withdrawn from storage (withdrawal season). It is perfectly normal for total demand to exceed total supply in winter and fall below total supply during the summer. What is important is to see how total natural gas balance compares to previous years (pale blue curve indicates annual change in total balance).

Please note that total balance DOES NOT equal storage flows. It is assumed (but not asserted) that negative changes in total balance should exert an upward pressure on prices, while positive change in total balance should exert a downward pressure on prices. Therefore, the bulls want negative annual changes in total balance to be as large as possible, while the bears favor positive changes in total balance.

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