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Total Degree Days (Energy Demand)


       
6 Months   1 Year   3 Years   Max
Last update: August 17, 2018, 16:11 EDT
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Description

Total Degree-Days chart shows the running aggregate of the projected number of total-degree days (TDDs = CDDs + HDDs) over the next 15-day period. It also shows the price of NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract (daily close), 30-year (TDD) norm and last year's (TDD) results. TDDs are important because they essentially indicate the volume of weather-related energy demand.

Please note, that 24h "bullish change" and "bearish change" in total degree-days (TDDs) may be partly the result of seasonal factors. Each day, the forecast is extended by one extra day. Therefore, the absolute number of projected cooling degree-days (CDDs) will be rising as the forecast moves closer towards peak summer consumption (July-August). Equally, the absolute number of projected heating degree-days (HDDs) will be rising as the forecast moves closer towards peak winter consumption (January-February).  

CDDs normally peak on July 25 (+/- a few days) and HDDs normally peak on January 15 (+/- a few days). Therefore, when looking at the above chart, it is important to remember that:

  1. from January 1 and up until July 10 (roughly), the "bullish changes" in projected CDDs and the "bearish changes" in projected HDDs will be partly seasonal (i.e, partly expected);
  2. from July 10 and up until January 1 (roughly), the "bullish changes" in projected HDDs and the "bearish changes" in projected CDD will be partly seasonal (i.e., partly expected).

Source:  BGR hybrid model comprised of GFSNAMCanadian GGEM and ECMWF.  

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