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January 10, 2018  
Aggregate demand for American natural gas was up 9.9% YoY in October 2017 and continued to grow in November and December. Natural gas consumption should rise markedly in both January and February this year. Exports should continue to expand rapidly, but annual growth rate can slow due to base effects.
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Examining Supply Demand Balance
December 13, 2017  

for members only - available for members only

December 11, 2017  
Believe it or not, aggregate demand for American natural has been growing in annual terms since January 2010. We anticipate to see a minor 2.6% annual growth rate in consumption in December, followed by a whopping 14.5% growth in January and an even more sizable expansion in February. However, there is lots of uncertainty to that forecast.
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November 10, 2017  
We are in a quite challenging trading environment. There are strong arguments in both camps (bullish and bearish). It still makes sense to be net long and buy the dips.
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November 1, 2017  
EIA has released natural gas monthly figures for August. We review them and provide our latest forecast. Exports now equate to more than 11% of national consumption. Natural gas consumption in the U.S. should to stay strong but grow very erratically. We currently expect natural gas storage to peak at 3,794 bcf in the week ending November 3.
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October 31, 2017  
November (X) contract expired on October 27 and December (Z) contract became the front month (or prompt contract), which will be traded for most of September. What do we know about seasonal patterns in November (i.e., for December contract)?
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October 22, 2017  
The United States has been a net exporter of natural gas for 20 consecutive days. The United States enjoys some of the best LNG export contribution margins in the world. 2018 is expected to be a record year for the delivery of natural gas power plants. Total natural gas demand per degree day is now at its highest level ever and keeps going up. Our end-of-withdrawal-season storage index is abnormally low.
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October 9, 2017  
Only in 2015 has the November contract been cheaper than it is today. Unlike in 2015, however, large speculators are net long by a great margin. It is unreasonable to expect that natural gas prices can drop below $2.800 per MMBtu, let alone decline toward $2.500 per MMBtu.
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October 2, 2017  
We expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to increase by 1.90% year over year in October. We currently expect natural gas storage to peak at 3,837 bcf in the week ending Nov. 10. We have made important changes to our trading strategy.
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September 4, 2017  
Consumption is declining in annual terms, but exports help to keep aggregate demand strong. We expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to fall by another 3.20% y-o-y in September. We then expect consumption to recover swiftly in both October and November.
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August 30, 2017  
The October contract is one of the least volatile natural gas contracts. The level of returns has fluctuated between +16.82% and -12.68%. The trend has been bearish in 56% of cases.
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August 29, 2017  
We have started to provide and regularly update our end-of-withdrawal-season storage index. Five coldest months (November-March) could witness 3,500 heating-degree-days, 3% above the norm. Total natural gas demand per degree day is now higher than at any time in history.
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August 2, 2017  
Natural gas consumption declined in annual terms in June and July and will probably decline further in August. However, consumption growth should pick up some pace in autumn - possibly, growing by as much as 9% y-o-y in October. On a 12-month average basis, exports now equate to more than 10% of national consumption. Under the latest weather forecast and with prices below $2.85 per MMBtu, we are unlikely to see natural gas storage reach 5-year average by the end of October 2017.
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July 31, 2017  
September contract is one of the least volatile natural gas contracts. The level of returns has fluctuated between +4.33% and -13.34%. The trend has been bearish in 67% of cases.
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July 11, 2017  
Production forecast was revised lower. NG/coal spread turned negative, which is very uncommon for summer months. Natural gas is driven by daily changes in fundamentals.
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July 6, 2017  
Recovering production is the most likely reason for the decline. Lower prices are tightening the balance again. July reports are not priced in.
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June 21, 2017  
There is no ironclad way of knowing the future. But there are tools that can give you a rough idea about what it may look like. Simple linear regression returns a December 2017 contract price of $4.026 per MMBtu.
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June 13, 2017  
There is a distressed supply situation in natural gas. Today's price action is an abomination. The balancing price is above $3.30 per MMBtu.
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June 5, 2017  
Residential consumption of natural gas has been essentially flat for the past five years. This summer, we expect natural gas consumption to decline in annual terms. But total demand is expected to remain largely unchanged from previous year.
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May 31, 2017  
Supply and demand forecasts have been getting more bearish since May 12. Power burn remains weak and end-of-season storage index stands above market expectations. Retail traders are buying the dip.
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