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February 12, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,492 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending February 7. We anticipate to see a draw of 117 bcf, which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago but 14 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a minor bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). ECMWF 00z model was very bullish vs. yesterday's results. From February 17, total degree days are projected to trend mostly sideways. Nuclear outages are rising and should continue to rise rise until mid-April (at least).
Detail
February 11, 2020  
Total consumption of dry natural gas in November 2019 decreased in three of the four consuming sectors, but overall edged down by only 0.40% y-o-y (despite substantially weaker TDDs). Total natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that U.S. natural gas consumption will rise by 2.64% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (February to April). Over the next three months, total supply will be growing slower (on an annualized basis) than total demand, ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be tighter (relative to 2019). Our end-of-season storage index currently stands at 1,731 bcf, which is below market expectations of 1,895 bcf.
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February 5, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,615 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 31. We anticipate to see a draw of 131 bcf, which is 97 bcf larger than a year ago and 12 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a minor bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). ECMWF 00z model was very bearish vs. yesterday's results, but total degree days are still projected to rise above the norm on Feb. 14. Combined LNG stocks (at six major facilities) currently stand at just 54% of total observed capacity.
Detail
January 31, 2020  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is down 12.3% y-o-y to 119.5 bcf/d, but is projected to rise next week. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 5.4% y-o-y to 103.5 bcf/d, but the growth rate should continue to slow. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 131 bcf next week, 97 bcf smaller than a year ago and 12 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. TDDs are generally projected to trend higher, but remain below the norm (until at least Feb. 10 - Feb. 11). Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the five-year average is currently projected to shrink by -44 bcf over the next three weeks.
Detail
January 30, 2020  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has totally plunged - natural gas has never been so competitive for electricity generation (vs. coal) as it is today. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 7.6 bcf/d, some 1.8 bcf/d above the five-year average, and 1.3 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 5.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in February. Total natural gas balance in February is currently projected to be tighter than last year, but only by around -0.9 bcf/d, which is still a minor bullish signal.
Detail
January 29, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,745 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 24. We anticipate to see a draw of 202 bcf, which is 31 bcf larger than a year ago and 59 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). Total degree days are projected to reach a near-term low on Feb. 3 and are then projected to trend higher and possibly rise above the norm on Feb. 10.
Detail
January 24, 2020  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 2.4% y-o-y to 131.4 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 6.5% y-o-y to 104.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 201 bcf next week, 30 bcf larger than a year ago and 58 bcf larger vs. the five-year average. Short-range weather models continue to forecast below normal heating-degree days over the next 15 days. Dry gas production continues to decline, while LNG exports have set a new all-time high.
Detail
January 22, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,944 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 17. We anticipate to see a draw of 95 bcf, which is 57 bcf smaller than a year ago but 99 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). Next week (ending January 31), the weather conditions are expected to get substantially warmer. Our latest end-of-season-storage index is at 1,606 bcf, 264 bcf below implied market expectations of 1,870 bcf.
Detail
January 17, 2020  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 3.3% y-o-y to 114.9 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 4.6% y-o-y to 102.9 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 90 bcf next week, 62 bcf smaller than a year ago and 104 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. Short-range weather models are highly unstable and there is a major disagreement between the GFS and the ECMWF models. Dry gas production continues to decline. Today's early morning pipeline nominations in U.S. Lower-48 states have dropped sharply to 93.3 bcf/d (the lowest since October 6).
Detail
January 15, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,053 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 10. We anticipate to see a draw of 95 bcf, which is 13 bcf larger than a year ago but 89 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). Next week (ending January 24), the weather conditions are expected to get substantially colder. Our latest end-of-season-storage index is at 1,689 bcf, 141 bcf below implied market expectations of 1,830 bcf.
Detail
January 10, 2020  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 117 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 6.3% y-o-y to 104.7 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 93 bcf next week, 11 bcf larger than a year ago but 91 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. There is still a disagreement between the short-range models, but TDDs are generally projected to trend higher.
Detail
January 8, 2020  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,142 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 3. We anticipate to see a draw of 50 bcf, which is 31 bcf smaller than a year ago and 95 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2019). Next week (ending January 17), the weather conditions are expected to get substantially colder. Our latest end-of-season-storage index is at 1,748 bcf, 62 bcf below implied market expectations of 1,810 bcf.
Detail
January 7, 2020  
Total consumption of dry natural gas in October 2019 decreased in two of the four consuming sectors, but overall managed to grow by 2.08% y-o-y (despite weaker TDDs). Total natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that U.S. natural gas consumption will edge down by -0.36% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (January to March). U.S. dry gas production has already reached a major long-term peak and will remain essentially flat for the next 12 months (at least). We estimate that annual supply-demand "surplus" will amount to +6.06 bcf/d in January.
Detail
January 2, 2020  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has declined, meaning that natural gas became more competitive (vs. coal) as a "feedstock" for electricity generation. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 6.7 bcf/d, some 1.1 bcf/d above five-year average and 1.2 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 3.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in January. Total natural gas balance in January is currently projected to be looser than last year by around +4.9 bcf/day.
Detail
December 20, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 22.2% y-o-y to 128 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 103.7 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 155 bcf next week, which is 94 bcf larger than a year ago and 54 bcf larger vs. the five-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 1.7 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus should continue to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
Detail
December 18, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,416 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 13. We anticipate to see a draw of 102 bcf, which is 30 bcf smaller than a year ago and 10 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Next week (ending December 27), the weather conditions are expected to get substantially warmer, but annual storage "surplus" is still projected to shrink. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2018).
Detail
Global Crude Oil Market (Selected Analytics) - December 15, 2019
December 15, 2019  

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December 14, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 0.3% y-o-y to 114.9 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.5% y-o-y to 103.8 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 98 bcf next week, which is 34 bcf smaller than a year ago and 14 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 2.4 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus is projected to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
Detail
December 11, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,513 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 6. We anticipate to see a draw of 78 bcf, which is 3 bcf larger than a year ago and 10 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Dry gas production has peaked as the productivity of new wells has plateaued, while the inventory of old wells is now growing faster than the inventory of new wells. Heating demand is projected to surge by 25% y-o-y in the week ending December 20. Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink by 72 bcf (in total) over the next 3 weeks (4 EIA reports).
Detail
December 6, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 3.1% y-o-y to 114.8 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 104.2 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 74 bcf next week, which is 1 bcf smaller than a year ago but 6 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 2.9 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus is projected to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
Detail
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