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Global Crude Oil Market (Selected Analytics) - November 10, 2019
November 10, 2019  

for members only - available for members only

November 6, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,735 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 1. We anticipate to see a build of 40 bcf, which is 23 bcf smaller than a year ago and 17 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (November 6-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 4.5 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by 19 bcf this November.
Detail
November 5, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. The share of natural gas-fired generation has reached an all-time high. Average NG/Coal spread has skyrocketed, as natural gas price surged by more than 20%, while coal prices remained essentially unchanged. Coal-to-gas switching is around 5.4 bcf/d, some 0.1 bcf/d below last year's level and 0.4 bcf/d below 5-year average. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 4.5 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in November. Total natural gas balance in November should be looser than last year, but only by around +0.6 bcf/day.
Detail
November 1, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.9 bcf/d. Total supply is up 7.2% y-o-y to 102.4 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 38 bcf next week, which is 25 bcf smaller than a year ago and 19 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020. Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the 5-year average will briefly turn into "deficit".
Detail
October 30, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,696 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 25. We anticipate to see a build of 90 bcf, which is 41 bcf larger than a year ago and 25 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 30-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 2.2 bcf/d tighter (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by around 100 bcf this November.
Detail
October 25, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 1.2% y-o-y to 84.8 bcf/d. Total supply is up 7.9% y-o-y to 102.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 94 bcf next week, which is 45 bcf larger than a year ago and 29 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Total supply-demand balance will tighten sharply next week to -1.60 bcf/d year-over-year. Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the 5-year average is currently projected to expand from +28 bcf today to +36 bcf for the week ending November 8.
Detail
October 23, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,613 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 18. We anticipate to see a build of 94 bcf, which is 32 bcf larger than a year ago and 21 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 23-November 7). In the week ending November 1, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 1.7 bcf/d tighter (vs. 2018).
Detail
October 18, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 0.2% y-o-y to 83.8 bcf/d. Total supply is up 8.2% y-o-y to 101.2 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 94 bcf next week, which is 32 bcf larger than a year ago and 21 bcf larger vs. the 5 year. LNG feed gas flows set a new all-time high and we estimate that by December, total natural gas exports from the U.S. will reach 13.35 bcf/d. Actual supply-demand balance is still relatively bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
October 16, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,523 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 11. We anticipate to see a build of 108 bcf, which is 26 bcf larger than a year ago and 27 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus," which has built up over the past months. Any new bullish changes in the weather/consumption forecasts are likely to result in a disproportionately stronger impact on prices compared to any additional bearish changes (because non-commercial traders are heavily net-short). Overall, classical technicals look bullish, but fundamentals are not particularly supportive given that annual storage surplus continues to expand.
Detail
October 11, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 0.3% y-o-y to 80.60 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 39 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.2% y-o-y to 100.4 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 110 bcf next week, which is 28 bcf larger than a year ago and 29 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
October 9, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,417 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 4. We anticipate to see a build of 100 bcf, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing roughly normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 9-October 24). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus," which has built up over the past months. On a 4-hour chart, we see two bearish patterns: head and shoulders and inverse cup and handle, which call for a re-test of 2.250 and 2.200.
Detail
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): Evolution Of Forecasts - October 8, 2019
October 8, 2019  

for members only - available for members only

October 7, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 4.93% y-o-y in July 2019 to 89.56 bcf/d. Residential deliveries were the highest for the month since 2011. Commercial deliveries were the highest for the month since 1997. Natural gas exports in July were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to decline in annual terms over the next three months, but the rate will vary significantly for each month. Over the next two months, total supply should grow faster than total demand, leading to looser SD balance relative to 2018. However, the balance should tighten sharply in December.
Detail
October 4, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 5.4% y-o-y to 83.80 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 38 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.4% y-o-y to 101.1 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 100 bcf next week, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
October 3, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Average NG/Coal spread has plunged over the past week, as natural gas price dropped, while coal prices slightly increased. Coal-to-gas switching is around 7.9 bcf/d, some 0.1 bcf/d above last year's level and 1.6 bcf/d above 5-year average. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 4 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in October. Total natural gas balance in October should be looser than last year by around +7.0 bcf/day.
Detail
October 2, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,315 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 27. We anticipate to see a build of 110 bcf, which is 19 bcf larger than a year ago and 27 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). The latest numerical weather prediction models (short-range 00z runs) are showing below-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days. Although storage level outlook remains bearish, a very high comparison base from the previous year statistically exaggerates the scale of storage "surplus".
Detail
September 30, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 4.4% y-o-y to 82.70 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 37 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 5.9% y-o-y to 99.9 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 107 bcf next week, which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago and 24 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
September 25, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,193 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 20. We anticipate to see a build of 90 bcf, which is 39 bcf larger than a year ago and 16 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus", which has built up over the past months. Despite higher number of TDDs, stronger cooling demand cannot fully offset the loss of heating demand during this time of the year.
Detail
September 20, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 1.5% y-o-y to 84.30 bcf/d. In annualized terms, total weekly natural gas demand has declined for the first time since April 19, 2019. Total supply is up 6.5% y-o-y to 99.5 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 90 bcf next week, which is 39 bcf larger than a year ago and 16 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. LNG inventories are almost full, while the price of Gulf Coast LNG remains too expensive - particularity compared to European prices.
Detail
September 17, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,101 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 13. We anticipate to see a build of 82 bcf, which is 2 bcf smaller than a year ago and in line with the 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus", which has built up over the past months. The "deficit" (relative to 5-year average) is projected to narrow by +160 bcf (in total) over the next 7 weeks (8 EIA reports) and turn into "surplus".
Detail
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