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January 2, 2020  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has declined, meaning that natural gas became more competitive (vs. coal) as a "feedstock" for electricity generation. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 6.7 bcf/d, some 1.1 bcf/d above five-year average and 1.2 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 3.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in January. Total natural gas balance in January is currently projected to be looser than last year by around +4.9 bcf/day.
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December 20, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 22.2% y-o-y to 128 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 103.7 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 155 bcf next week, which is 94 bcf larger than a year ago and 54 bcf larger vs. the five-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 1.7 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus should continue to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
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December 18, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,416 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 13. We anticipate to see a draw of 102 bcf, which is 30 bcf smaller than a year ago and 10 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. Next week (ending December 27), the weather conditions are expected to get substantially warmer, but annual storage "surplus" is still projected to shrink. Non-degree-day factors are having a bullish impact on potential natural gas consumption (compared to 2018).
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Global Crude Oil Market (Selected Analytics) - December 15, 2019
December 15, 2019  

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December 14, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 0.3% y-o-y to 114.9 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.5% y-o-y to 103.8 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 98 bcf next week, which is 34 bcf smaller than a year ago and 14 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 2.4 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus is projected to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
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December 11, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,513 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 6. We anticipate to see a draw of 78 bcf, which is 3 bcf larger than a year ago and 10 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Dry gas production has peaked as the productivity of new wells has plateaued, while the inventory of old wells is now growing faster than the inventory of new wells. Heating demand is projected to surge by 25% y-o-y in the week ending December 20. Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink by 72 bcf (in total) over the next 3 weeks (4 EIA reports).
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December 6, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 3.1% y-o-y to 114.8 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 104.2 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 74 bcf next week, which is 1 bcf smaller than a year ago but 6 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Non-degree-day factors currently add as much as 2.9 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year). Annual storage surplus is projected to shrink, but the rate depends on the weather outlook.
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December 4, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,594 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 29. We anticipate to see a draw of 16 bcf, which is 46 bcf smaller than a year ago and 25 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are projecting just about normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (on average), but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending December 6, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 1.5 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
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December 3, 2019  
Total consumption of dry natural gas in September 2019 decreased in three of the four consuming sectors, but total demand still grew by 6.40% thanks to strong exports and powerburn. Total natural gas exports were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase by +5.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (December to February). U.S. dry gas production has probably reached a major long-term peak. We estimate that annual supply-demand "deficit" will amount to -6.86 bcf/d in December and -6.04 bcf/d in January.
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November 29, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. NG/Coal spread has declined, meaning that natural gas became more competitive (vs. coal) as a "feedstock" for electricity generation. Coal-to-gas-switching currently stands at around 5.9 bcf/d, some 0.7 bcf/d above five-year average and as much as 2.7 bcf/d above last year's level. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 5.0 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in December. Total natural gas balance in December should be substantially tighter than last year by around -6.7 bcf/day.
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November 22, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 1.1% y-o-y to 104.7 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.6% y-o-y to 104.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 32 bcf next week, which is 38 bcf smaller than a year ago and 28 bcf smaller vs. the five-year norm. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020. Non-degree-day factor adds as much as 2 bcf/d of extra natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector (compared to last year).
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November 20, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,642 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 15. We anticipate to see a draw of 90 bcf, which is 19 bcf smaller than a year ago but 58 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are projecting just about normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days, but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending November 22, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 6.2 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
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November 19, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 7.53% y-o-y in August 2019 to 90.80 bcf/d. Electric power deliveries were the highest for any month since EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001. LNG exports were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking them in 1997. Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that national natural gas consumption will increase by +6.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (November to January). In December and January, we currently expect annual supply-demand balance to be in "deficit" relative to 2018-2019: -7.72 bcf/d in December and -4.15 bcf/d in January.
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November 15, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 2.8% y-o-y to 114.5 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 8.7% y-o-y to 103.9 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 95 bcf next week, which is 14 bcf smaller than a year ago, but 63 bcf larger vs. the five-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020.
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November 13, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,722 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 8. We anticipate to see a draw of 7 bcf, which is 49 bcf larger than a year ago and 37 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. The latest numerical weather prediction models are showing above-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (November 13-November 28), but there is a disagreement in terms of scale. In the week ending November 15, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 3.4 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" is projected to shrink over the next 45 days.
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November 8, 2019  
Total demand for U.S. natural gas is up 10.8% y-o-y to 101 bcf/d. Total U.S. natural gas supply is up 7.8% y-o-y to 103.2 bcf/d. LNG exports almost reached a new all-time high. We currently expect the EIA to report a draw of 1 bcf next week, which is 43 bcf larger than a year ago and 31 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020.
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November 6, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,735 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 1. We anticipate to see a build of 40 bcf, which is 23 bcf smaller than a year ago and 17 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (November 6-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 4.5 bcf/d looser (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by 19 bcf this November.
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November 5, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. The share of natural gas-fired generation has reached an all-time high. Average NG/Coal spread has skyrocketed, as natural gas price surged by more than 20%, while coal prices remained essentially unchanged. Coal-to-gas switching is around 5.4 bcf/d, some 0.1 bcf/d below last year's level and 0.4 bcf/d below 5-year average. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 4.5 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in November. Total natural gas balance in November should be looser than last year, but only by around +0.6 bcf/day.
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November 1, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 13.0% y-o-y to 94.9 bcf/d. Total supply is up 7.2% y-o-y to 102.4 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 38 bcf next week, which is 25 bcf smaller than a year ago and 19 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. We expect dry gas production to peak this year and remain essentially flat for the whole of 2020. Natural gas storage "surplus" relative to the 5-year average will briefly turn into "deficit".
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October 30, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,696 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending October 25. We anticipate to see a build of 90 bcf, which is 41 bcf larger than a year ago and 25 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday's short-range 00z runs) are showing above normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days (October 30-November 14). In the week ending November 8, we expect total supply-demand balance to be 2.2 bcf/d tighter (vs. 2018). Annual storage "surplus" will probably grow by around 100 bcf this November.
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