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EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): Evolution Of Forecasts - September 10, 2019
September 10, 2019  

for members only - available for members only

Global Crude Oil Market (Selected Analytics) - September 8, 2019
September 8, 2019  

for members only - available for members only

September 6, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 3.5% y-o-y to 87.60 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 20 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.6% y-o-y to 100.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 84 bcf next week which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Over the next 40 days, relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly below the relative total supply curve.
Detail
September 4, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,938 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 30. We anticipate to see a build of 81 bcf, which is 17 bcf larger than a year ago and 15 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 16 consecutive days now. Relatively loose supply-demand balance in September-October should exert a downward pressure on prices. At the same time, the downside potential should be limited, given that the prices are already near historical lows.
Detail
September 3, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 6.30% y-o-y in June 2019 to 81.96 bcf/d. Electric power deliveries were the highest for the month since EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001. Natural gas exports in June were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to decline in annual terms over the next three months. Overall, we believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand, ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be looser relative to 2018.
Detail
August 16, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 6.5% y-o-y to 90.8 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 17 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 6.7% y-o-y to 99.10 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 64 bcf next week. Over the next 40 days, the relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly within the relative total supply curve.
Detail
August 13, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Average NG/Coal spread currently stands at around $0.64 per MMbtu, down as much as 62% vs. 5-year average, which is improving the relative competitiveness of natural gas. Coal-to-gas switching is around 9.7 bcf/d, some 2 bcf/d above last year's level and as much as 3.4 bcf/d above 5-year average. Total natural gas balance in August will be looser than last year, but only by around +0.62 bcf/day.
Detail
August 9, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 4.5% y-o-y to 91.9 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 16 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 99.10 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 55 bcf next week. Both total supply and total demand are record-high (for this time of the year), but total demand is still not strong enough to erode y-o-y storage surplus.
Detail
August 8, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for May was the highest level for the month since 2001 when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. External demand also remained elevated, mostly due to stronger pipeline exports into Canada and robust sales of liquefied natural gas. Next year, the share of exports will overtake the share of residential consumption in the total demand mix. We currently project that national natural gas consumption will be rising by around 2.92% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (August to October). We currently expect to see just +380 bcf in storage by October 2019 (vs. October 2018).
Detail
July 31, 2019  
United States has produced 16,241 bcf of natural gas in the first half of 2019 (89.73 bcf/d), 12% more than over the same period in 2018. The results for the second half of the year and for 2020 are expected to be a lot less impressive. Cash is drying up, drilling activity is slowing down, the appetite for expansion/exploitation has diminished. Permian and Marcellus regions now generate more than 50% of nationwide natural gas production. Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down).
Detail
July 29, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 1.9% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 13 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 6.5% y-o-y to 97.20 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 54 bcf this week. Consumption per degree day has reached a new all-time high.
Detail
July 23, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,564 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 19. We anticipate to see a build of 31 bcf, which is 4 bcf larger than a year ago but 13 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 18 consecutive days now. Over the next 40 days, relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly above the relative total supply curve.
Detail
July 17, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for April was the second-highest level for the month since 2001, when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. The average daily rate of LNG exports was the highest for any month since EIA began tracking them in 1997. We project that national natural gas consumption will be increasing by around 1.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (July to September). We currently expect U.S. Lower-48 dry gas production to average 90.49 bcf/d over the next three months (July to September), 1.72 bcf/d lower than the latest EIA estimate of 92.21 bcf/d. We do not expect total annual storage surplus to be very large. We currently expect to see just +273 bcf in storage by September 2019 (vs. September 2018).
Detail
July 11, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 4.8% y-o-y to 89.00 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 12 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.0% y-o-y to 97.60 bcf/d. Production has set a new all-time high on July 5, but later some energy firms temporarily halted production in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Barry. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 56 bcf next week (7 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average).
Detail
July 9, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Natural gas remains the fastest-growing source of power among all other sources (not just compared to coal). Average NG/Coal spread currently stands at around $0.85 per MMbtu, down as much as 51% vs 5-year average, which is improving the relative competitiveness of natural gas. Coal-to-gas switching is around 8.8 bcf/d, some 1 bcf/d above last year's level and as much as 2.9 bcf/d above 5-year average. The annual change in total supply-demand balance is not large enough to eliminate storage deficit relative to 5-year average by the end of 2019.
Detail
July 5, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 2.0% y-o-y to 86.90 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 10 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.0% y-o-y to 98.40 bcf/d. Production has set a new all-time high on July 4. Supply-demand balance over the next five weeks is projected to be bullish vs. the 5-year average.
Detail
June 28, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 83.10 bcf/d. Total supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 97.9 bcf/d. Liquefaction flows (LNG feedgas) averaged 5.9 bcf/d, a new all-time high. Currently, we expect the EIA to report a build of 84 bcf next week. Supply-demand balance in July is projected to be bullish vs. the 5-year average.
Detail
June 26, 2019  
Last week, the number of cooling degree-days (CDDs) jumped by 25.0% w-o-w, as weather conditions warmed up significantly across the country. For the week ending June 21, we anticipate to see a build of 95 bcf, which is 25 bcf larger than 5-year average. On average, the latest numerical short-range weather prediction models are showing above-normal amount of total degree-days over the next 15 days. By August 30, 2019, weather-neutral SD balance is projected to tighten to +2.26 bcf/d (vs. 2018) from +4.80 bcf/d today.
Detail
June 20, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 3.4% y-o-y to 81.6 bcf/d. Total supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 96.8 bcf/d. Despite a 23% drop in the price of Central Appalachian coal, NG/Coal spreads remain very low. Currently, we expect the EIA to report a build of 90 bcf next week. 2019 will go into history as a year when Henry Hub natural gas became a global commodity.
Detail
June 17, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for March reached the highest level for the month since 2001 when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. Commercial deliveries were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly commercial deliveries in 1973. Electric power deliveries were the highest for the month since EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001. We project that national natural gas consumption will be increasing by around 1.60% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (June-July-August). EIA currently expects U.S. dry gas production to peak in January 2020 at 91.92 bcf/d.
Detail
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