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November 11, 2018. Trends In The Electric Power Sector
November 11, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

November 9, 2018. Global LNG Trends
November 9, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

Objective Market Analytics Vs Subjective Trading Decisions
October 9, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

August 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 3.0% y-o-y to 71.7 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 13.0% y-o-y to 91.4 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 69 bcf next week;
Detail
August 21, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,440 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 17. We anticipate to see an injection of 53 bcf, which is 8 bcf larger than a year ago and 1 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Weather forecast first turned bullish in the afternoon on August 16, but more recent changes have been relatively neutral. Above-normal CDDs/TDDs and the economics of coal-to-gas switching continue to support natural gas prices, but seasonal trends are bearish, while dry gas production recently hit a new all time-high. We have executed 40 trades over the past two months (a detailed list is included in the report - published for the first time).
Detail
August 18, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% y-o-y to 76.0 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 91.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 52 bcf next week. The latest results from numerical weather prediction models have invigorated the bulls - but for how long?
Detail
August 15, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,390 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 10; We anticipate to see an injection of 36 bcf, which is 13 bcf smaller than a year ago and 20 bcf smaller vs 5-year average; There is currently no mispricing to take advantage of in terms of EOS expectations; Bearish risks are plenty: record high production, falling CDD/TDDs, mild winter outlook, etc. Rising nuclear outages and global LNG fundamentals are the only two bullish factors that we currently observe.
Detail
August 13, 2018  
After rising by 7.9% y-o-y in May, natural gas consumption then continued to increase, but at a more measured pace. Weather-induced cooling demand grew by 9.0% and 6.5% y-o-y in June and July, respectively. Currently, we expect exports to total 10.2 bcf per day in June, 10.1 bcf per day in July and 10.4 bcf per day in August. Overall, we believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
Detail
August 10, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 12.0% y-o-y to 76.3 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 37 bcf next week. Projected number of total degree days is still above the norm but is declining fast. November and December contracts look overvalued.
Detail
August 8, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,355 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 3. We anticipate to see an injection of 47 bcf, which is 18 bcf larger than a year ago, but 6 smaller vs. 5-year average. For the past three weeks, the market has been adjusting is EOS storage expectations to the downside. Finally, the gap between market’s expectations and our own forecast has narrowed to a record low. A few words on the mystery of natural gas.
Detail
August 6, 2018  
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore, the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. August has historically been the 3rd "weakest" month for renewable power. Total natural gas balance in August should be looser relative to last year by around 2.7 bcf/day.
Detail
August 3, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 5.0% y-o-y to 74.2 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 49 bcf next week. Our EOS storage index has dropped to 3,273 bcf on Friday morning. Our bullish bias has paid off.
Detail
August 1, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,316 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 27. We anticipate to see an injection of 43 bcf, which is 25 bcf larger than a year ago, but exactly in line with 5-year average. Storage level will drop below 5-year minimum for the first time since January. Storage level is not expected to rise above 5-year minimum in the foreseeable future.
Detail
July 28, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 7.0% y-o-y to 76.2 bcf; Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 90.0 bcf per day; We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 43 bcf next week; As expected, storage level has declinedbelow 5-year minimum by the end of July. We have significantly reduced our long exposure today.
Detail
July 23, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 540 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 10.0% y-o-y to 89.5 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 34 bcf this week. Mid-term weather forecast turned bearish over the weekend, but total demand is still above 5-year average. End-of-season storage index is still abnormally low, and we expect inventories to drop below 5-year minimum either this week or next.
Detail
July 19, 2018  
United States has produced some 2,423 bcf of natural gas in June this year (+11.0 y-o-y). On a 12-month average basis, production growth rate is about to reach a mid-term peak. Natural gas producers hate current prices. Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down to see more).
Detail
July 18, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,258 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ended July 13. We anticipate an injection of 55 bcf, which is 24 bcf more than a year ago, but 7 bcf less than the five-year average. Market expectations are too bearish in both the short and long term.
Detail
July 13, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% y-o-y to 528 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 89.7 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 52 bcf next week.
Detail
July 11, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,207 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 6. We anticipate to see an injection of 55 bcf, which is 4 bcf smaller than a year ago and 22 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Storage level could still decline below five-year minimum by the end of July if key market variables remain unchanged.
Detail
July 8, 2018  
Gas usage in the Electric Power sector continues to increase and therefore the weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. The recent 5% drop in the price of Henry Hub prompt month contract from late June has led us to revise higher our outlook for coal-to-gas switching. July has historically been the 4th weakest month for renewable power output. Total natural gas balance in July will be looser relative to last year by around 2.6 bcf/day.
Detail
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