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January 24, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 6.0% w-o-w to 123.0 bcf per day (up more than 20% y-o-y). Total natural gas supply is down 0.9% w-o-w at 97.1 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 180 bcf next week. Weather models have stayed bullish for the past two weeks now. Aggregate demand is currently projected to jump by another 12% w-o-w in the week ending February 1.
Detail
January 22, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,380 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 18. We anticipate to see a draw of 153 bcf, which is 120 bcf smaller than a year ago and 32 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. The weather outlooks is bullish – large storage draws are coming. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 53 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 18, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 9.0% w-o-w to 108.2 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is flat at 96.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 152 bcf next week. Weather models are very bullish (so far). Aggregate demand is currently projected to jump by 20% in the week ending January 25.
Detail
January 16, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,528 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 11. We anticipate to see a draw of 86 bcf, which is 122 bcf smaller than a year ago and 132 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Weather is helping the bulls – annual storage surplus will only hold for a few days. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 47 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 15, 2019  
Low natural gas inventories (relative to historical norms) make price extremely susceptible to changes in the short-term weather models. If we trust GFS model entirely and completely ignore ECMWF, then we should expect a 300 bcf draw for the week ending February 1. Prompt-month contract is very risky to trade. Summer contracts are still undervalued.
Detail
January 11, 2019  
Total demand for American natural gas is down 5.0% y-o-y to 98 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 96.6 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 77 bcf next week. Weather models are getting bullish - projected energy demand is now above the norm. In February, annual storage deficit could start expanding again.
Detail
January 9, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,627 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending January 4. We anticipate to see a draw of 78 bcf, which is 310 bcf smaller than a year ago and 125 bcf smaller vs 5-year average. Total demand has set a near-term low on January 7 and is projected to increase from now – but will it go high enough? Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time-high for 40 consecutive days now.
Detail
January 8, 2019  
Natural gas deliveries to commercial sector were the highest for any month since EIA began tracking commercial deliveries in 1973. October was the 18th consecutive month that industrial deliveries set a new monthly high. We do not expect dry gas production to grow significantly in 2019. We expect total demand/supply balance in January and March to be looser relative to 2018. We expect total demand/supply balance in February to be tighter relative to 2018.
Detail
January 2, 2019  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,700 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending December 28. We anticipate to see a draw of 25 bcf, which is 193 bcf smaller than a year ago and 107 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Total demand curve is expected to start trending up from January 7. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 33 consecutive days now.
Detail
December 30, 2018. Trends In The Electric Power Sector
December 30, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

December 14, 2018  
Two factors are pulling the overall demand lower: weather forecast and the economics of fuel switching. Weather models have been getting progressively bearish since December 5. Projected number of total degree-days peaked on December 3. Coal-to-gas switching has dropped sharply over the past weeks. Seasonality and time will be on the bear's side starting roughly from Dec. 28./Jan. 1. Annual storage deficit is still projected to narrow significantly over the next four weeks (as expected).
Detail
December 5, 2018  
This Friday, we expect EIA to report 2,990 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 30. We anticipate to see a draw of 64 bcf, which is 61 bcf larger than a year ago and 6 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. Total demand is trending down, and annual storage deficit is projected to start shrinking next week. Should production and weather forecasts remain largely unchanged, we expect annual storage deficit to narrow to just -65 bcf by mid-February, 2019 (scroll down to see a detailed chart).
Detail
November 30, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 17% y-o-y to 96.5 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.9 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 65 bcf next week. In December, total supply is currently projected to grow faster than total demand.
Detail
November 26, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 14% y-o-y to 96.4 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 12.0% y-o-y to 95.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 67 bcf this week. The latest weather models turned bearish. EOS storage index is still above 1,200bcf.
Detail
November 21, 2018. Global LNG Trends
November 21, 2018  

for members only - available for members only

November 20, 2018  
Tomorrow, we expect EIA to report 3,138 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 16. We anticipate to see a draw of 109 bcf, which is 67 bcf larger than a year ago and 84 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market is fixated on the changes in short-term weather models. We have improved our coverage of numerical weather prediction systems – providing more frequent updates and more information.
Detail
November 16, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is up 20% y-o-y to 102 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 115 bcf next week. On Thursday, the weather models removed 30+bcf of consumption over the next 15 days (2 bcf per day). Thank you, weather! Sorry, Poland!
Detail
November 13, 2018  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,238 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending November 9. We anticipate to see an injection of 30 bcf, which is 43 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. 5-year average. The market has priced in a lot more than just bullish weather. The price of $4.000 per MMBtu also has lots of fear in it. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
Detail
November 12, 2018  
What has happened in the natural gas market over the past six months? What should have happened (if the market was efficient)? The trap we are in and how to get out.
Detail
November 11, 2018  
Total demand for American natural gas is flat y-o-y at 83.1 bcf per day. Total natural gas supply is up 11.0% y-o-y to 94.3 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report an injection of 30 bcf next week. Natural gas price is up 32% since mid-September despite the fact than annual storage deficit has narrowed by 64bcf over the same period. It is all about the weather! Consumption is expected to peak on November 14 and then decline towards the norm in the 2nd half of November.
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