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October 7, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 4.93% y-o-y in July 2019 to 89.56 bcf/d. Residential deliveries were the highest for the month since 2011. Commercial deliveries were the highest for the month since 1997. Natural gas exports in July were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to decline in annual terms over the next three months, but the rate will vary significantly for each month. Over the next two months, total supply should grow faster than total demand, leading to looser SD balance relative to 2018. However, the balance should tighten sharply in December.
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October 4, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 5.4% y-o-y to 83.80 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 38 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.4% y-o-y to 101.1 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 100 bcf next week, which is 9 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
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October 3, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Average NG/Coal spread has plunged over the past week, as natural gas price dropped, while coal prices slightly increased. Coal-to-gas switching is around 7.9 bcf/d, some 0.1 bcf/d above last year's level and 1.6 bcf/d above 5-year average. Wind, hydro, and solar generation can displace no less than 4 bcf/d of potential natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector in October. Total natural gas balance in October should be looser than last year by around +7.0 bcf/day.
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October 2, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,315 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 27. We anticipate to see a build of 110 bcf, which is 19 bcf larger than a year ago and 27 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). The latest numerical weather prediction models (short-range 00z runs) are showing below-normal amount of TDDs over the next 15 days. Although storage level outlook remains bearish, a very high comparison base from the previous year statistically exaggerates the scale of storage "surplus".
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September 30, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 4.4% y-o-y to 82.70 bcf/d. We estimate that total demand has remained above the 5-year norm for 37 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 5.9% y-o-y to 99.9 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 107 bcf next week, which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago and 24 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Actual supply-demand balance is still very bearish, but weather-neutral balance is tightening.
Detail
September 25, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,193 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 20. We anticipate to see a build of 90 bcf, which is 39 bcf larger than a year ago and 16 bcf larger vs 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus", which has built up over the past months. Despite higher number of TDDs, stronger cooling demand cannot fully offset the loss of heating demand during this time of the year.
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September 20, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is down 1.5% y-o-y to 84.30 bcf/d. In annualized terms, total weekly natural gas demand has declined for the first time since April 19, 2019. Total supply is up 6.5% y-o-y to 99.5 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 90 bcf next week, which is 39 bcf larger than a year ago and 16 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. LNG inventories are almost full, while the price of Gulf Coast LNG remains too expensive - particularity compared to European prices.
Detail
September 17, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 3,101 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending September 13. We anticipate to see a build of 82 bcf, which is 2 bcf smaller than a year ago and in line with the 5-year average. Non-degree day factors are currently bearish for potential natural gas consumption (compared to the same period in 2018). While total demand remains relatively strong, it is still not strong enough to shrink annual storage "surplus", which has built up over the past months. The "deficit" (relative to 5-year average) is projected to narrow by +160 bcf (in total) over the next 7 weeks (8 EIA reports) and turn into "surplus".
Detail
September 9, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Average NG/Coal spread has more than doubled over the past month, which has dented natural gas's competitiveness as a feedstock for electricity generation. Coal-to-gas switching is around 7.8 bcf/d, some 0.5 bcf/d below last year's level, but 1.6 bcf/d above 5-year average. Total natural gas balance in September will be looser than last year by around +2.06 bcf/day.
Detail
September 6, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 3.5% y-o-y to 87.60 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 20 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.6% y-o-y to 100.0 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 84 bcf next week which is 16 bcf larger than a year ago and 11 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Over the next 40 days, relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly below the relative total supply curve.
Detail
September 4, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,938 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending August 30. We anticipate to see a build of 81 bcf, which is 17 bcf larger than a year ago and 15 bcf larger vs. the 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 16 consecutive days now. Relatively loose supply-demand balance in September-October should exert a downward pressure on prices. At the same time, the downside potential should be limited, given that the prices are already near historical lows.
Detail
September 3, 2019  
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 6.30% y-o-y in June 2019 to 81.96 bcf/d. Electric power deliveries were the highest for the month since EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001. Natural gas exports in June were the highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Currently, we expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. to decline in annual terms over the next three months. Overall, we believe that over the next three months, total supply will be growing faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand, ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be looser relative to 2018.
Detail
August 16, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 6.5% y-o-y to 90.8 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 17 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 6.7% y-o-y to 99.10 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 64 bcf next week. Over the next 40 days, the relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly within the relative total supply curve.
Detail
August 13, 2019  
The weight of the Electric Power sector in the natural gas market continues to grow. Average NG/Coal spread currently stands at around $0.64 per MMbtu, down as much as 62% vs. 5-year average, which is improving the relative competitiveness of natural gas. Coal-to-gas switching is around 9.7 bcf/d, some 2 bcf/d above last year's level and as much as 3.4 bcf/d above 5-year average. Total natural gas balance in August will be looser than last year, but only by around +0.62 bcf/day.
Detail
August 9, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 4.5% y-o-y to 91.9 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 16 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 7.1% y-o-y to 99.10 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 55 bcf next week. Both total supply and total demand are record-high (for this time of the year), but total demand is still not strong enough to erode y-o-y storage surplus.
Detail
August 8, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for May was the highest level for the month since 2001 when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. External demand also remained elevated, mostly due to stronger pipeline exports into Canada and robust sales of liquefied natural gas. Next year, the share of exports will overtake the share of residential consumption in the total demand mix. We currently project that national natural gas consumption will be rising by around 2.92% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (August to October). We currently expect to see just +380 bcf in storage by October 2019 (vs. October 2018).
Detail
July 31, 2019  
United States has produced 16,241 bcf of natural gas in the first half of 2019 (89.73 bcf/d), 12% more than over the same period in 2018. The results for the second half of the year and for 2020 are expected to be a lot less impressive. Cash is drying up, drilling activity is slowing down, the appetite for expansion/exploitation has diminished. Permian and Marcellus regions now generate more than 50% of nationwide natural gas production. Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down).
Detail
July 29, 2019  
Total demand for natural gas is up 1.9% y-o-y to 87.3 bcf/d. Total demand has been expanding in annual terms for 13 consecutive weeks now. Total supply is up 6.5% y-o-y to 97.20 bcf/d. We currently expect the EIA to report a build of 54 bcf this week. Consumption per degree day has reached a new all-time high.
Detail
July 23, 2019  
This Thursday, we expect EIA to report 2,564 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending July 19. We anticipate to see a build of 31 bcf, which is 4 bcf larger than a year ago but 13 bcf smaller vs. 5-year average. Dry gas production has failed to set a new all-time high for 18 consecutive days now. Over the next 40 days, relative total demand curve is expected to remain mostly above the relative total supply curve.
Detail
July 17, 2019  
Natural gas consumption for April was the second-highest level for the month since 2001, when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. The average daily rate of LNG exports was the highest for any month since EIA began tracking them in 1997. We project that national natural gas consumption will be increasing by around 1.42% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (July to September). We currently expect U.S. Lower-48 dry gas production to average 90.49 bcf/d over the next three months (July to September), 1.72 bcf/d lower than the latest EIA estimate of 92.21 bcf/d. We do not expect total annual storage surplus to be very large. We currently expect to see just +273 bcf in storage by September 2019 (vs. September 2018).
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