Adding Confidence to Your Trading Decisions

TRADING
VIEW
LATEST
FORECASTS
DAYS OF
SUPPLY
Home Membership Market Research Trading Guide Track Record Free Content Update Schedule Contacts
Log In

Natural Gas Weekly: Total Exports Surge 30% As Flows To Liquefaction Resume

February 15, 2019  

This report covers the week ending February 15, 2019. Daily data for February 9 to February 14 is estimated. Daily data for February 15 is forecast.

Total Supply/Demand Balance

We estimate that aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption + exports) will total around 859 bcf for the week ending February 15 (up 12.0% w-o-w and up 14.0% y-o-y). The deviation from the norm should remain positive and increase from +4% to +19% (see the chart below).

This week, the weather conditions have cooled down across the country - but particularly in the Central and Western part of the U.S. We estimate that the number of nation-wide heating degree-days (HDDs) surged by no less than 17.0% w-o-w in the week ending February 15. At the same time, non-degree-day factors are spurring some extra consumption - particularly in the Electric Power sector. The most important four non-degree-day factors that we are looking at are: the spread between natural gas and coalwind speedshydro inflows, and nuclear outages. Specifically, lower ng/coal spreads have already added some 1.5 bcf/d of potential coal-to-gas-switching (compared to February 2018), while the level of hydro inflows is some 600 MMcf/d weaker compared to previous year. According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, nuclear outages averaged 4,940 MW this week, which is 14% below 5-year average. Overall, total energy demand (measured in total degree-days) should be above last year's level by no less than 12%.

continue reading...

Copyright 2015 - 2019 © Bluegold Research     [ Terms of Use ]   [ Contacts ]
Site by Smartum IT