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January 2020: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

January 7, 2020  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has recently released their natural gas monthly statistics for October 2019. In this article, we will briefly review their consumption and exports figures, then look at our estimates for November and December, and conclude with our latest forecast for January, February, and March.

October Overview

Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas increased by 6.41% y-o-y in October 2019 to 88.75 bcf/d. Despite the fact that there were 3.1% less total degree days (TDDs) than there were last year, natural gas consumption rose by 2.08% y-o-y to 75.05 bcf/d. Exports surged by as much as 38.55% y-o-y to 13.70 bcf/d.

Overall, year-over-year total consumption of dry natural gas in October 2019 increased in two of the four consuming sectors, and it decreased in the other two sectors. Deliveries of natural gas by consuming sector in October 2019 were:

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