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Natural Gas Storage: Expecting A Relatively Bullish Draw

February 12, 2020  

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending February 7), the number of heating degree days (HDDs) declined by 4.4% w-o-w (from 164 to 157). We estimate that total energy demand (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was 3.0% below last year's level, but as much as 17.6% below the 30-year norm. Cooling demand remained too weak to have a meaningful impact on natural gas consumption.

This week

This week (ending February 14), the weather conditions will get significantly colder. We estimate that the number of nationwide HDDs will increase by 13.6% w-o-w (from 157 to 178). Total average daily demand for natural gas should be somewhere between 118 bcf/d and 123 bcf/d, which is approximately 12.4% above the 5-year average for this time of the year. However, total energy demand (measured in TDDs) should be some 5.1% below last year's level and 1.5% below the 30-year norm.

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