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End of Injection Season Storage Forecast


Last update: October 17, 2017, 7:39 EDT
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Description

End of Injection Season Storage Index (EOiS) chart shows the development of our forecasts for the EOS inventory number. It also displays implied market expectations and the price of natural gas futures. EOiS storage index is a product of a complex, multi-parameter cycle model. It should be viewed as an indicator rather than as a forecast per se. The primary purpose of this index is to help traders ascertain the “adequacy” of natural gas price. For more information about EOS indices, please click here.

Essentially, EOS indices reflect price anomalies. As a general rule, when our EOS inventory number is below market expectations (and trending down), price tends to increase; when our EOS inventory number is above market expectations (and trending up), price tends to fall. Please remember that EOS index is not the only factor influencing the price of natural gas. There are many other factors involved, including short-term events and technical indicators. To see similar chart of the end of withdrawal season, please click here

Updated every weekday by 9 AM Eastern time.

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Definitions:

  • Inventory Forecast - Bluegold Research end-of-season (EOS) storage forecast (for the week ending October 27, 2017).
  • 5-day average - arithmetic average of Bluegold Research EOS storage forecasts over the last five updates.
  • Market Expectations - settle price on ICE's EIA Future contracts (for the week ending November 3, 2017).
  • Natgas Futures Price - Henry Hub NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Price (prompt contract, close).
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